gdgt

As long as data caps are in place I think this would be a bad move. I understand that the idea of someone using up 250GB in one month is a lot but think about if a household has two children and each wants a copy of the game. That would mean that one household is going to be pulling down double the data for one game.

I think games still need a place in the shops to grab people's attention, plus I'm not entirely comfortable with the idea that I'd need Internet access to get more games. (Man, I'm stuck with 3Mbps broadband connection here and I'm in Hong Kong!)

As you point out, the cost to Microsoft for the optical drive is so low that this wouldn't change the price enough to justify the decision merely in reference to the total cost of the console. The only way they will ever be able to do this is by committing to killing the used games market. I think most publishers would agree to sell games at a lower price if they knew it meant the end of used games. I have a hard time believing that Microsoft is ready to go that far, though. It would greatly reduce the value of the platform and would give Sony an advantage over the XBox, and I don't see Sony dropping the optical drive anytime soon since they sell as many PS3s as Blu-Ray players to non-gamers as they do to gamers. I hope they never drop discs for distribution because if you have several hundreds of thousands of people downloading a big game on release day, that is likely to bring XBox Live to its knees for days. It's a beautiful dream, but we are several years out from this becoming a feasible reality.

I would be worried about the success about such a device, mainly because we tend to take fast internet connections for granted here in the US. In many other parts of the world the internet is slower, and there are bandwith caps. Both of those impose a substantial limiting factor on the consumption of both games and the console.

If every game is ~7GB, in somes places, you could only download a couple before you hit a cap. I feel like going discless would maybe represent/allow for a new price point for the company, but I feel that their profits would be lessened because of the data impact such a console would impose.

Personally, however, I would buy a console that uses discs any day over a discless one because part of the gaming process for me is going to a store, looking at the games, reading the backs, and enjoying the game from the buying process to the time I'm done with it. Reading digital descriptions of games seems too disconnected to me.

I think that it is obvious that days of discs are numbered. Optical drives are bulky, slow, and noisy.

The benefits of download are tremendous for Microsoft. Cutting out retailers gives them a big increase in profit. I believe that there will be a slow transition in favor of downloadable games over the next couple of years. During this period there will progressively fewer titles available on physical media. Then when the next generation Xbox launches it won't be a surprise that it launches without an optical drive.

If they were a brave pioneer or plucky young upstart company maybe, but ultimately it is too early for a company like Microsoft to make this move. The reasons are numerous. Chiefly, the broadband capacity of most homes is simply not up to par which would severely limit consumption. Secondly, if you switch to the digital download option you are going to need a large amount of storage - a great deal more than currently packaged with the device, and subsequently that cost saving begins to be eroded by the cost of increased capacity drives. Those drives would also need to be ultra durable. A standard hard drive will at some point fail, so the warranty would have to be longer, and I had better be able to download my games again so that if it fails I am covered. All this extra capacity both client and server side costs money to support.

Where it probably would make sense is that it would effectively destroy the trade-in second hand market which has plagued software developers since its inception. I can just imagine a new era of gamers who have to purchase a copy each, rather than one copy cycling its way through the second hand shops over and over - great for the publisher and developer, not so great for the consumer - unless of course you weigh in the fact that companies would have less reason to spend their time making their games 'sticky' by adding multi-player to everything, and could start releasing more quality single player story driven games.

A great question, but one asked all too early. That said, people thought it was madness when Jobs didn't include a floppy drive on the iMac and we all know how that turned out.

A disc-less XBox 360 would run into similar problems the PSPGo had to deal with. First off, would Microsoft honor previous XBox 360 disc purchases for those looking to make the transition to disc-less? Buying a game twice in a financial burden not many would be willing to make. Second would be data corruption or hard drive issues. As opposed to simply losing your saved data if this happens you would then have to re-download every single game if your system's drive needs to be replaced. That means at least a day or two extra without being able to play games as everything repopulates. Third would be data caps. With the current state of the bandwidth market how would people be able to handle downloaded multiple GB games while still maintaining their monthly caps? Fourth, if you choose to do a cloud option instead of local storage how will you avoid constant buffering and loading for majorly intensive graphics and gameplay? These are some major hurdles to overcome before a completely disc-less system is a viable option to the general public.

I've been thinking for a while that it seems very odd to have to take my hard drive with me to another Xbox360 to play my stored games using my stored data. Why?

Microsoft, you want to leap forward? PUT ALL THAT DATA in the cloud. My progress, games played, media, etc. Why not? in 2011, why am I losing ALL my gaming history if my Xbox blows up or is stolen? Come on Microsoft! Show you can do something innovative!

I can't see this, disc drives are so cheap these days that i must represent a minor cost in the overall system.
download only systems, are a still a long way from being really viable, (PSPgo anyone)
As others have mentioned bandwidth will be a major issue for a while to come, with all the restrictive data caps etc.
And personally i like being able to sell and pick up games on ebay, can't do that with download only.

If Game Consoles and Publishers decided to kill physical media by releasing a disc-less device then GameStop would crash just like Tower Records. The whole ecosystem would collapse just like it has for the music industry.

It's a fantastic prospect; using Steam on a PC makes going out to a store and buying an optical disc in a box just seem so... *retro* by comparison. Xbox Live could fully take on that role, and they could expand the availability of new titles for download, and give all the other benefits of that arrangement too...
* cloud-based profile, storing game saves/progress, etc...
* use the game (and all your media) on as many as devices as you like, just recover your profile and off you go

Oh, and obviously Xbox Live will act as your store for movie/music downloads/rentals, and tie in with Zune pass etc. Probably they'll also make arrangements with cable networks etc to deliver IPTV too.

This is clearly the way MS are headed, and others too including Google and Apple. It obviously does have ramifications for the existing game industry though - games stores will suffer, and the used market will be pretty much wiped out. There's still a benefit to the customer of having physical media available for this stuff. It's quite possible that units with optical drives will eventually become a "niche/enthusiast" model, but not in the current generation I'd guess.

Also, this will obviously require a pretty decent-sized local hard drive for caching your favourite games, so some of the potential cost savings will be lost.

Introducing a disc-less 360 will absolutely KILL the used game industry. Microsoft doesn't make any money off of that so there I doubt they really cared, but the ramifications of that would be massive.

I think Microsoft would be much better off licensing the ability to download and play Xbox Live games than to introduce a new disc-less Xbox 360 device. Delivering a disc-less device branded as an Xbox 360 would encourage the user to expect to be able to play the full library of Xbox 360 games on it. The PSPgo has already demonstrated what a difficult expectation that is to meet. Even if Microsoft were able to make games available for download on launch day, the experience for a downloader is going to be frustrating as they wait days or even weeks for the rush of downloaders to subside and finally complete that 4-8GB download. Meanwhile, their disc-based brethren are going to be spoiling the game for them.

Just as people are willing to pay a bit more to get services like Hulu and Netflix built into their televisions, I think they would pay a few dollars more to have Xbox Live built in. That would be a much better proposition than dedicated Xbox 360 hardware that is crippled compared to the other SKUs.

I think that as long as it was clearly marketed as a "light" version of the 360, then it would be an interesting experiment for them to give it a try. Roku just came out with a model that includes "Angry Birds," at a relatively inexpensive price point. I'm sure they are testing the waters to position themselves as a platform for casual home gaming as being a part of their "all in one" device. It would be unwise for Microsoft to at least not consider this.

Even at a $99 price point, Xbox 360 still wouldn't be competitive with devices like Roku and Apple TV since you have to pay for a $60/year Xbox Live Gold account which is really lame. That always bugged me. Why should I pay Microsoft an annual fee to use the Netflix/Hulu+ service I already pay for, on the internet connection that I already pay for, through the console that I already paid them for. I'd rather pay $60 - $100 once for a Roku and not have to worry about having to pay every year.

Maybe the next next (x2) gen console might not have ODD. Maybe it will have an optional external ODD.
Although the adoption of online distributed games is growing fast, even for console. It might not reach that critical point yet.
Unlike the fruit company who has legion of religious followers, game console makers might not have that luxury. Their machines are for sound and sensible individual.
I hope the next gen will have a slot load disc drive, instead of the current tray drive. For next gen game and for backward compatibility.

I do not think MS will need to bring 360 down to $99 dollars.
1) it is more than a media player.
2) rumour mill claim that XBL service will be in Windows 8. And since Windows 8 can be everywhere, they might not need to reduce the value of a dedicated game console.

Even if they want to bring it down, the amortization and refinement to manufacturing cost and processes might already help them to do meet that target.

Thanks for reading.

This would be a horrific move. It's known that many Xbox 360s are not even online (if you can believe that in this day and age). I believe the days of an online only system are coming, but it's not yet. The bandwidth does not allow. Cutting out the retailers would result in a huge backlash. They need the retailers too much at this point. The ratio of online sales for even the BEST selling games to disc sales don't even compare. Suicide.

I think it's a great idea that can be implemented within the next few generations. For those of you bringing up the PSP Go, I shall bring to light Valve's Steam network on the PC. A friend of mine, a hardcore PC gamer, hasn't bought a DVD in 2 years and instead makes all his purchases from Steam.

Also, for those thinking that games will not be as cheap as Amazon or select brick and mortar retailers, Steam have GREAT offers every so often that greatly reduce the price of games within a year or so.

Of course, Microsoft will have to bundle in some sort of external drive and DVDs will not die out completely, after all internet coverage isn't all that great and data caps make a formidable hurdle to overcome. But for those that have the ability, go for it.

Timchoi89 also has a point. Most of the youth demographic don't have credit cards readily available to them.

Games are getting larger and larger.... some of the PS3's games are 15 to 20GB. The console would need a TB hard drive, if not more. Oh, and without really fast internet, it would take days to download. Then, imagine the hard drive failing and having to re-download.

Maybe at some point, they might ditch the optical drive, but not anytime soon. I personally like physical media. The perfect "backup" solution.

I would be far happier if they would introduce a silent drive.

My xbox spinning a disc sounds like a 747 taking off dragging a washing machine behind it.

Yes. As much as I think physical media is a thing of the past and personally haven't handled a CD Drive in years, having a disc-less console would mean fixed pricing and less competition. First and foremost, Microsoft and the other publishers will need to offer games on release as a download on Xbox Live or the applicable service. Microsoft currently offer games on demand, but they are dated games and are never new releases. Furthermore, as seen by the prices charged on the Games on Demand service, the prices are excessively high when compared to the prices the games would cost at retail stores. I like having the option there in case I desperately need to obtain a copy of a game when going to a retail store is not an option (eg. Public holidays or after hours), so I accept the premium for the added convenience. If it were all offered through a download, imagine the price points these games will be at, and the restricted flexibility. Other than Xbox's Gold subscriber weekly sale, the price would rarely be altered.

I can't see the next gen consoles (beyond the Wii U) requiring optical drives, at least as far as Microsoft's concerned (Sony might still want to keep plugging the BD).

If they are going to subsidise it with their digital content though then they'll need to put a lot of work into services like the Zune Pass which just seem neglected and lagging behind competition nowadays. That said, they're making a big push on this Xbox TV stuff and if they work out a way to unify their various offerings (Zune Pass, Xbox Live, possible movie rental subscriptions) into one subscription service then they might be able to nail the console price issue pretty easily.

No and yes. While secondary functionality such as streaming media, music, and casual games are part of the overall value proposition, the purchase driver for game consoles is the ability to play console games. Optical discs are the storage medium of choice for graphics-heavy, fully immersive games. An Xbox that didn't play Xbox games would be a terrible idea ...unless it was marketed as an Xbox Extender, specifically targeting the Apple TV/Roku market, and aimed at the second/third/fourth TVs in the house. That might not be a bad idea at all.

I feel like they could also get support for such a thing from the game makers, some of whom have been trying to find a way to kill the used game market for some time. If Microsoft were to go to them and say, "we'll take a big step toward taking cheap used games off the table," they might be able to improve their position on the back end rather than on the consumer side.

They would also have to get ready for the old e-book/mp3 complaint where people don't want to pay $60 for a game anymore if it doesn't come on a shiny disc.

I don't think we're quite ready for full digital distribution of games yet. You've pointed out the costs recovered by removing the rom drive are minimal and I agree. I also don't think there are enough people out there that can download every game they play. I'm hitting my 125Gb/month cap as it is... :)
I think a subsidized model makes sense, would be a unique approach in this market.

No. I'd like to see a disc-less console in the next generation, but I think the future is going to reveal that the Xbox 360 peeked with Kinect and the current body style. Who knows, maybe Microsoft will find another way to milk this aging cow but I doubt it.

Now, a next generation console without a disc drive and partner app stores from the likes of Amazon, etc. would be really interesting.

I actually hope that the next generation of consoles doesn't go with digital distribution. I like having physical media to go with my games. I like reading the instruction manuals. I like putting all my games on a shelf to look at. I like choose which store to buy my games at. I like trading my games with friends.

If the next X-Box has download only games, I wont be buying one.

Way too early. CDs are dying but are far from over. Downloading games is starting to trend upwards but most people would rather get to play now than download to play later. Maybe the 3rd Generation (Xbox in 2016/2017), when we have more cheap high speend broadband to the masses, maybe then it will become a reality.

if this became the standard for the next console, a subsidized system, as much as I love the xbox, I will shoot myself in the face, twice, then buy a ps3.
No, they shouldn't do this if there are more people like me out there.

I'm trying to delete the post since I meant it as a reply to someone else but it won't let me :(

They are not yet Apple-caliber even in the console market (meaning they can't force a change like this down our throats). Remember for years they sold hard drive-less model which was just a ridiculous way to get the price down. Any gamer worth their salt needs room for map downloads, etc. Now there is a 4GB model.

The fact they've changed the disc format recently should show that they are going to stick with discs for the forseeable future. I can have infinite games on my shelf but only X number of downloaded ones depending on the HD size.