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Where do you see the OS space in 10 years.
I did a similar post on what I thought about the iPad and desktop OS but I thought it would be fun to do a thread on just where do you see OSes in 10 years, mobile and desktop.
Well, it might not happen, but Apple never surprise me with their actions. They threw one person I know out of a UK Apple Store for getting his iPad out, yet they welcomed me and had me doing a demo. This is at staff level, so who knows what Mr J and his team may have planned for the future.
Nice to hear from you BTW.
Nice to hear from you BTW.
Yeah, Apple can definitely be an unpredictable company when it comes to their policies. That said, I think this sort of thing would absolutely kill their desktop / laptop market -- especially when there's so many other viable operating system options out there.
The reason they can do this in the mobile world is that they are (were?) in the drivers seat as far as smart phones go. With so much mind share, and a popular selling device, they can dictate what they wanted. Now, Google is starting to eat some of their lunch, so it will force them to rethink some of their strategies.
As far as the Apple Stores themselves go, they're so disconnected from Apple corporate, I wouldn't look too deeply into what happens there. When I briefly worked for Apple retail, we often found out about new products the same time the general public did. And then had to deal with a crush of visitors asking about the latest gadget and all we could say was, "come back tomorrow / next week / next month when it's available here if you want to know more!"
The reason they can do this in the mobile world is that they are (were?) in the drivers seat as far as smart phones go. With so much mind share, and a popular selling device, they can dictate what they wanted. Now, Google is starting to eat some of their lunch, so it will force them to rethink some of their strategies.
As far as the Apple Stores themselves go, they're so disconnected from Apple corporate, I wouldn't look too deeply into what happens there. When I briefly worked for Apple retail, we often found out about new products the same time the general public did. And then had to deal with a crush of visitors asking about the latest gadget and all we could say was, "come back tomorrow / next week / next month when it's available here if you want to know more!"
I like your point about saying that Google is having some of Apples lunch. When you have competing brands, this does indeed make industries look over their strategies. And when this happens, each industry will try their best to benefit the consumer. So I think of it as a win scenario for all of us.
Yeah, I don't think Mac OS will become closed. I doubt even Steve Jobs is arrogant and out-of-touch enough to think it would be a good idea to restrict a computer so much.
Although the iPhone/iPad lockdown disgusts me on political and tech-loving levels there are some valid reasons for that lockdown (not reasons that outweigh the underlying luddite Big Brother-ness though). In a full computer those reasons become almost completely moot.
That said, if the desktop OS as we know it is replaced by something closer to a mobile OS then maybe there will be a locked-down Mac OS. Though I hope nobody is stupid enough to use it! There will always be a Linux option as long as desktop computers are around.
Although the iPhone/iPad lockdown disgusts me on political and tech-loving levels there are some valid reasons for that lockdown (not reasons that outweigh the underlying luddite Big Brother-ness though). In a full computer those reasons become almost completely moot.
That said, if the desktop OS as we know it is replaced by something closer to a mobile OS then maybe there will be a locked-down Mac OS. Though I hope nobody is stupid enough to use it! There will always be a Linux option as long as desktop computers are around.
Ok, thought I might as well do my prediction. Windows has become a corporate OS, and even in the corporate space it's used by large companies reluctant to switch to new OSes. Microsoft releases a new cloud centric OS for consumers. Does reasonably well. Mac OS continues on for devs, creatives, and geeks. iPhone OS matures and iPad is a dominant force in the computer space. Chrome OS netbooks, laptops, and desktops, tablets flood the space, and becomes popular with web app store. Android suffers from fragmentation for a while but then becomes great. Sense UI gives iPhone OS a run for its money. webOS is on a multitude of devices.
In the desktop space I see Windows continuing to be the OS of choice for the hardcore gamers, as well as people who want to tweak, customize, and optimize every aspect of their OS. Mac OSX will likely be gaining considerable market share at this point, their stock value will have surpassed Microsoft's, and they will continue to gain users by using their "just works" mantra. I also think that 10 years from now apple will stop their Mac Vs. PC ads, and begin to focus on marketing the features of it's OS rather than throwing jabs at the competition. As much as I wish Linux would become more mainstream, I see it remaining at the lower end of the market and mind share pool, although I believe it will slightly gain market share, and appeal, as consumers, and businesses, move more and more of their data and core applications, and services to the cloud.
As far as the mobile space goes, I agree with much of what teapower says of android and WebOS, but I think Nokia and its Symbian OS will likely be bumped to second or third place relating to market share, and Android and iPhone OS will leap ahead (respectively.) WebOS and Windows Phone 7 will likely be chomping at each others necks in a race, for 5th place (RIM will likely be fourth, due to a stagnation in innovation, but a continued strong mind share.) Maemo/Meego, will likely be sold or branched off into another company, and will likely be similar to the modern day Linux, for mobile devices. those are my thoughts...
As far as the mobile space goes, I agree with much of what teapower says of android and WebOS, but I think Nokia and its Symbian OS will likely be bumped to second or third place relating to market share, and Android and iPhone OS will leap ahead (respectively.) WebOS and Windows Phone 7 will likely be chomping at each others necks in a race, for 5th place (RIM will likely be fourth, due to a stagnation in innovation, but a continued strong mind share.) Maemo/Meego, will likely be sold or branched off into another company, and will likely be similar to the modern day Linux, for mobile devices. those are my thoughts...
Oh my god, I honestly had no clue. Now apple will have to enter phase two of my prediction, but they're already doing it in their successful keynotes. I think the future of tech companies advertising dollars will be spent advertising their products, rather than attacking other companies.
I did however always think that these ads were working great for them... Maybe they think they could do even better? After all apple is a marketing machine.
I did however always think that these ads were working great for them... Maybe they think they could do even better? After all apple is a marketing machine.
Yeah, I think they'll focus on the iPad for awhile, trying to make it seem ultra cool and give people a reason to buy it. Also the iPhone ads are great because there so easy to understand and it shows off the product too. I think that style will be the next phase of Apple marketing. I could see those being the new Mac ads, just don't tell them "it just works" so them how it does.
My prediction on RIM being 4th place was based on leaked info of BB OS 6.0.
www.boygeniusreport.com/2010/04/20/blackberry-os-6...
I think (if this OS is successful on the touch front and can satisfy their existing keyboard loving users) that RIM can still fare well, if they don't make their move to late. IMO there's still some time left before RIM squeezes out the last bit of life out of OS 5.0, and users start switching over. But only time will tell...
www.boygeniusreport.com/2010/04/20/blackberry-os-6...
I think (if this OS is successful on the touch front and can satisfy their existing keyboard loving users) that RIM can still fare well, if they don't make their move to late. IMO there's still some time left before RIM squeezes out the last bit of life out of OS 5.0, and users start switching over. But only time will tell...
I think the mobile OS space will be totally dominated by Android. It's already started to outgrow iPhone, and I think Windows will regain enough marketshare in the next 12-18 months to leapfrog iPhone if Windows Phone 7 is at all successful. As long as Apple continues to offer limited form factors and makes more enemies with its censorship and control, the iPhone will lose ground to both Google and Microsoft.
Blackberry and Nokia are mysteries to me. They will probably do as you suggest and slip behind the more serious smartphones but retain enough mindshare to sell units.
Blackberry and Nokia are mysteries to me. They will probably do as you suggest and slip behind the more serious smartphones but retain enough mindshare to sell units.
Within a few years Android will own the mobile OS, including tablets (though I still don't think tablets will take off once the iPad hype calms down - I still haven't seen any software on a tablet that I wouldn't rather run on a netbook/laptop/phone). Windows Mobile and iPhone/iPad will fight it out for distant second place.
On the desktop the OS will become less important, though I think the desktop OS will still be around in 10 years. Windows will still have most of the market, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Macs increase simply because Apple are the best at marketing. The OS playing field will start to level out as hardware devices will learn to talk to each other without the reliance on drivers and the OS (e.g. my motherboard will communicate directly with the keyboard and network adaptor, etc. and the OS will only talk to the motherboard or maybe the OS will be built into the motherboard).
We'll do more 'computing' on dedicated devices and in the cloud. A PC as we know it now will probably become more of a workstation or server. Media works better on a large TV/hi-fi. Games will probably move even more towards consoles. Some computing needs will migrate to portable devices that are always connected, such as phones, tablets, Kindles, etc.
It's hard to say because I think average consumers will decide what happens, not geeks and not the tech companies. Mainstream consumers don't go for what is best or most capable, they go for the tech that is marketed the best or that gives an impression of value. So the best tech won't necessarily become the future. The future is whatever Joe Average can understand and afford. Which is why I am probably wrong about tablets not taking off.
On the desktop the OS will become less important, though I think the desktop OS will still be around in 10 years. Windows will still have most of the market, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Macs increase simply because Apple are the best at marketing. The OS playing field will start to level out as hardware devices will learn to talk to each other without the reliance on drivers and the OS (e.g. my motherboard will communicate directly with the keyboard and network adaptor, etc. and the OS will only talk to the motherboard or maybe the OS will be built into the motherboard).
We'll do more 'computing' on dedicated devices and in the cloud. A PC as we know it now will probably become more of a workstation or server. Media works better on a large TV/hi-fi. Games will probably move even more towards consoles. Some computing needs will migrate to portable devices that are always connected, such as phones, tablets, Kindles, etc.
It's hard to say because I think average consumers will decide what happens, not geeks and not the tech companies. Mainstream consumers don't go for what is best or most capable, they go for the tech that is marketed the best or that gives an impression of value. So the best tech won't necessarily become the future. The future is whatever Joe Average can understand and afford. Which is why I am probably wrong about tablets not taking off.
