I'm working on a column on the future of Nokia and would love to get some thoughts from the crowd here. There's three issues i'm thinking about. Comments? Thoughts? Future?
First, I'm confused by Nokia's platform strategy
Second, Nokia's services strategy is muddled
Third, Their most recent hardware designs are baffling
Discussion about
The future of Nokia
Nokia make great phones, I would posit in fact that they make the worlds best phones in terms of range of models and cell radio quality and to some extent usability, but heres the issue, just like we are witnessing the subsuming of the mp3 category into other devices, so we are starting to see the very start of the beginning of the end of the phone as standalone device.
I fully accept that we may only be at the very start of what may be a very long transition, forecasting technological transitions being far beyond my expertise, but you can't deny thats what we witnessing.
Nokia make lots and lots of phones, however even their "smartphones" I would argue are used and perceived as high end phones, so basically they are stuck in this position and will continue to do so, until they get out of this phone mentality, as an earlier reply posts think that a "mobile computing" device is just a phone with x number of features, and next years device is the same phone with x+1 features.
A new type of device has emerged, that has existed pre IPhone, but just as the IPod really took the mp3 player mainstream the IPhone is now leading the charge in making the mobile computing device mainstream.
If you think about the personal computer has also done this basically over the years the hardware has got more powerful and affordable and basically through software and usability taken over the tasks of previous device categories, or created whole new use cases.
The mobile computing device due to its size will take over from several devices ; MP3 players, GPS, phone to name a few and start to encroach on a few other categories such as netbooks.
Now Nokias problem is that while they continue with their current strategy their devices will only be perceived as and used as phones ( backed up by stats from AdMob and web traffic etc) and sure in some markets where there is no market for high end devices or in markets where they continue to dominate the low end they have a very strong position, however when consumers are ready to buy their first mobile computing device they will perceive that as an IPhone or an Android device not Nokia.
Nokia should create a single device , perfect a form factor and create an interface around Meamo, perfect that UI and iterate quickly but gradually evolve the device in the same way as the IPhone. By continuing to constantly bring out new devices( sometimes more than once a year) with bug laden software that only matures by the time they bring out their next model, they continually destabilise their presence and reputation in this emergent market.
They should possibly create a new single brand for this device and make a clear distinction between their phones and this new device.
I would argue that the IPhone is so successful because out of all the devices out there at the moment its the least like an actual mobile phone.
If Nokia continue like they are they are so big that they will be round for a long time, but in the long term they will find them selves cornered into what ever remains of the "mobile phone " market , which will diminish and be ultimately made a niche by the "mobile computer".
If you look history is littered with former giants that basically have not evolved with the market, who would have thought 10 years ago that AOL would be where it is. How about Palm now fighting for its life for not evolving their devices into phones quickly enough.
As I said before this may take a decade or longer , but thats the landscape for Nokia , and they should understand that they need to get their piece of this new category before its too late.
I fully accept that we may only be at the very start of what may be a very long transition, forecasting technological transitions being far beyond my expertise, but you can't deny thats what we witnessing.
Nokia make lots and lots of phones, however even their "smartphones" I would argue are used and perceived as high end phones, so basically they are stuck in this position and will continue to do so, until they get out of this phone mentality, as an earlier reply posts think that a "mobile computing" device is just a phone with x number of features, and next years device is the same phone with x+1 features.
A new type of device has emerged, that has existed pre IPhone, but just as the IPod really took the mp3 player mainstream the IPhone is now leading the charge in making the mobile computing device mainstream.
If you think about the personal computer has also done this basically over the years the hardware has got more powerful and affordable and basically through software and usability taken over the tasks of previous device categories, or created whole new use cases.
The mobile computing device due to its size will take over from several devices ; MP3 players, GPS, phone to name a few and start to encroach on a few other categories such as netbooks.
Now Nokias problem is that while they continue with their current strategy their devices will only be perceived as and used as phones ( backed up by stats from AdMob and web traffic etc) and sure in some markets where there is no market for high end devices or in markets where they continue to dominate the low end they have a very strong position, however when consumers are ready to buy their first mobile computing device they will perceive that as an IPhone or an Android device not Nokia.
Nokia should create a single device , perfect a form factor and create an interface around Meamo, perfect that UI and iterate quickly but gradually evolve the device in the same way as the IPhone. By continuing to constantly bring out new devices( sometimes more than once a year) with bug laden software that only matures by the time they bring out their next model, they continually destabilise their presence and reputation in this emergent market.
They should possibly create a new single brand for this device and make a clear distinction between their phones and this new device.
I would argue that the IPhone is so successful because out of all the devices out there at the moment its the least like an actual mobile phone.
If Nokia continue like they are they are so big that they will be round for a long time, but in the long term they will find them selves cornered into what ever remains of the "mobile phone " market , which will diminish and be ultimately made a niche by the "mobile computer".
If you look history is littered with former giants that basically have not evolved with the market, who would have thought 10 years ago that AOL would be where it is. How about Palm now fighting for its life for not evolving their devices into phones quickly enough.
As I said before this may take a decade or longer , but thats the landscape for Nokia , and they should understand that they need to get their piece of this new category before its too late.
The Opera Mini browser is the preferred browser on S60 for many users, as it doesn't just adjust content to the screen but also loads pages very quickly thanks to server-side compression technology. Among the 40 million monthly Opera Mini users, there are a whole lot of S60 users.
No time to go through all the posts so far in any great depth so I'll start writing my own here...
In order to write about Nokia's future, I need to write a bit about nokia's (recent) past.
I wrote this post:
mix.epicfu.com/profiles/blogs/my-phonedevice-wish-...
Back in may. It's A wish list for a device that Will tear me away from my 2+y/o HTC kaiser. (I will not purchase an Apple portable media product, including the Iphone for reasons that i mentioned elsewhere ), and at the time I was really looking forward to the N97 because of all it's specs, features and combination of internal memory AND expandable card storage . however as reviews were coming out, there were many issues with the unfriendly (resistive) touchscreen user interface. and the underpowered processor that runs the thing. Both combining in a poor user experience.
Needless to say I'm still waiting. :P
What really narks me is that, in my opinion, Nokia was in the best position to come up with a decent software platform from the moment the Mark 1 Iphone was released. Nokia owns Symbian and Symbian is used as a goto (if not THE goto) Mobile OS for manufacturers like SonyEricsson, and up until recently,Samsung amongst others. Nokia's major rivals (in my opinion) outside apple are HTC and before taking on anything involving Android, they relied on purchasing a windows mobile license for each device and equipping that as part of its software. never mind its GUI "patches" of touchflo and "sense"
one key factor for this situation is that up until the point apple released their Mk1 Iphone, Every single manufacturer was playing kiss-arse to the carriers, as detailed by the last 10-odd minutes of this TED talk from David Pogue.
www.ted.com/talks/view/id/495
Post Mk1 Iphone onwards Nokia and symbian should have IMMEDIATELY got their heads together to Make a mobile OS and interface that would Rival the Iphone and It's OS. But they didn't.
Also Why have they not done any major work with capacitive screens for their flagship devices? Why, in the case of the N97 and the N900, did they deem resistive feasible?
Devices as a whole outside the Iphone, from manufacturers Like HTC for example, seem to be adding features and improved technical specifications and resolutions at the Expense of a good user interface/experience. the only exception of this has been palm, with Web OS Being their "rabbit out of the hat", the problem in their case is all the kids have left their magic show.
Which segways into what I think of Nokia's future. There have been many rumblings on teh interwebs About Nokia Looking to acquire Palm. From my own perspective I would LOVE to see and use WEBOS on a Device like the N97 and the N900 (equipped with a powerful enough processor of course). Whilst we're at it I'll say I'm up for a device - from any manufacturer - that has the form factor and qwerty keyboard of the touch pro 2, a capacitive screen, the internal memory and expandability of the N97/N900 (as well as every other feature I mentioned from that personal blog post). And in an ideal world there would be an equal number of Developers making apps for WEBOS on a decent and released SDK as there would be for the Iphone. However if nokia persists with using Resistive screens they could do worse than invest in stantum technology as shown here on engadget.
www.engadget.com/2009/11/27/stantum-shows-off-resi...
Handset wise, in the short term, they need to at least incorporate capacitive screens with multitouch. as far as the software goes they need to focus And release one piece of kick-arse software, and a similar standard of SDK for it for 3rd party devs. The N95 was the last time nokia was at the peak of their game and the peak out of everybody. they may never reach that peak again. and they might end up going the way of palm.
Also what are they doing with this booklet 3G? Good industrial lightweight design or not, people with money AND sense will realise that that is just a netbook. Fair enough it might have always on internet, but even being a european I can see this failing on so many levels. First of all from what I've seen of advertising and sponsors, the 3g internet comes courtesy of AT&T, And even I can work out that it's coverage is not gonna win people over if their Iphone coverage is anything to go by. Secondly, the internals scream NETBOOK and similar spec-ed machines (without always on 3G) are available for several hundred bucks(+euros+pounds) less. These specs haven't really changed beyond the last year or so. And lastly, I don't see these becoming popular in Europe if they brand the "always on" internet as a selling point to people on the move. Namely one hour's flying or 3 or 4 hours driving from anywhere on the continent and you're in another country, and hence you'll be the victim of Stonking great roaming charges.
In order to write about Nokia's future, I need to write a bit about nokia's (recent) past.
I wrote this post:
mix.epicfu.com/profiles/blogs/my-phonedevice-wish-...
Back in may. It's A wish list for a device that Will tear me away from my 2+y/o HTC kaiser. (I will not purchase an Apple portable media product, including the Iphone for reasons that i mentioned elsewhere ), and at the time I was really looking forward to the N97 because of all it's specs, features and combination of internal memory AND expandable card storage . however as reviews were coming out, there were many issues with the unfriendly (resistive) touchscreen user interface. and the underpowered processor that runs the thing. Both combining in a poor user experience.
Needless to say I'm still waiting. :P
What really narks me is that, in my opinion, Nokia was in the best position to come up with a decent software platform from the moment the Mark 1 Iphone was released. Nokia owns Symbian and Symbian is used as a goto (if not THE goto) Mobile OS for manufacturers like SonyEricsson, and up until recently,Samsung amongst others. Nokia's major rivals (in my opinion) outside apple are HTC and before taking on anything involving Android, they relied on purchasing a windows mobile license for each device and equipping that as part of its software. never mind its GUI "patches" of touchflo and "sense"
one key factor for this situation is that up until the point apple released their Mk1 Iphone, Every single manufacturer was playing kiss-arse to the carriers, as detailed by the last 10-odd minutes of this TED talk from David Pogue.
www.ted.com/talks/view/id/495
Post Mk1 Iphone onwards Nokia and symbian should have IMMEDIATELY got their heads together to Make a mobile OS and interface that would Rival the Iphone and It's OS. But they didn't.
Also Why have they not done any major work with capacitive screens for their flagship devices? Why, in the case of the N97 and the N900, did they deem resistive feasible?
Devices as a whole outside the Iphone, from manufacturers Like HTC for example, seem to be adding features and improved technical specifications and resolutions at the Expense of a good user interface/experience. the only exception of this has been palm, with Web OS Being their "rabbit out of the hat", the problem in their case is all the kids have left their magic show.
Which segways into what I think of Nokia's future. There have been many rumblings on teh interwebs About Nokia Looking to acquire Palm. From my own perspective I would LOVE to see and use WEBOS on a Device like the N97 and the N900 (equipped with a powerful enough processor of course). Whilst we're at it I'll say I'm up for a device - from any manufacturer - that has the form factor and qwerty keyboard of the touch pro 2, a capacitive screen, the internal memory and expandability of the N97/N900 (as well as every other feature I mentioned from that personal blog post). And in an ideal world there would be an equal number of Developers making apps for WEBOS on a decent and released SDK as there would be for the Iphone. However if nokia persists with using Resistive screens they could do worse than invest in stantum technology as shown here on engadget.
www.engadget.com/2009/11/27/stantum-shows-off-resi...
Handset wise, in the short term, they need to at least incorporate capacitive screens with multitouch. as far as the software goes they need to focus And release one piece of kick-arse software, and a similar standard of SDK for it for 3rd party devs. The N95 was the last time nokia was at the peak of their game and the peak out of everybody. they may never reach that peak again. and they might end up going the way of palm.
Also what are they doing with this booklet 3G? Good industrial lightweight design or not, people with money AND sense will realise that that is just a netbook. Fair enough it might have always on internet, but even being a european I can see this failing on so many levels. First of all from what I've seen of advertising and sponsors, the 3g internet comes courtesy of AT&T, And even I can work out that it's coverage is not gonna win people over if their Iphone coverage is anything to go by. Secondly, the internals scream NETBOOK and similar spec-ed machines (without always on 3G) are available for several hundred bucks(+euros+pounds) less. These specs haven't really changed beyond the last year or so. And lastly, I don't see these becoming popular in Europe if they brand the "always on" internet as a selling point to people on the move. Namely one hour's flying or 3 or 4 hours driving from anywhere on the continent and you're in another country, and hence you'll be the victim of Stonking great roaming charges.
a) The nokia booklet is crippled and expensive only in the US ($60/M + 7 Basic!). In the rest of the world you get 7 Premium and at much cheaper rates + faster speeds depending on the provider. Surely that's not a Nokia fault now is it?
b) A lot of people here have mentioned the N95 as being "the last great nokia device". Check out this little device called E71. Editors Choice, Design Awards and 20M+ sold over the past 1.5 years.
c) There is no perfect device and you will always have to make some form of compromise. The N900 is a beast and although as stated earlier, its not ready for the mass market, if you can live with a little bugs and hang on for the ride, its a pretty powerful device with a vibrant community support that will continually be updated. + It has things similar to WebOS (such as the notifications).
d) Majority of the world cannot use Cap screens, (Cold weather, hand writing etc) and Nokia aims devices at the majority of the world. Check out the X6 if you want a Cap screened nokia. Also, please try the screen on a n900/n97 mini for yourself before you buy the FUD. Yes Cap screens are more responsive in comparison but Nokia's resistive screens are best in the business and perfectly optimized for touch. Do a google search for an n900 review and see how many non-us bloggers had problems with the screen.
e) Next time at least have an overview of the topic :)
b) A lot of people here have mentioned the N95 as being "the last great nokia device". Check out this little device called E71. Editors Choice, Design Awards and 20M+ sold over the past 1.5 years.
c) There is no perfect device and you will always have to make some form of compromise. The N900 is a beast and although as stated earlier, its not ready for the mass market, if you can live with a little bugs and hang on for the ride, its a pretty powerful device with a vibrant community support that will continually be updated. + It has things similar to WebOS (such as the notifications).
d) Majority of the world cannot use Cap screens, (Cold weather, hand writing etc) and Nokia aims devices at the majority of the world. Check out the X6 if you want a Cap screened nokia. Also, please try the screen on a n900/n97 mini for yourself before you buy the FUD. Yes Cap screens are more responsive in comparison but Nokia's resistive screens are best in the business and perfectly optimized for touch. Do a google search for an n900 review and see how many non-us bloggers had problems with the screen.
e) Next time at least have an overview of the topic :)
@Munk
The Nokia E71x on AT&T and the Nokia E75 (unlocked) are pretty solid phones in the U.S. market. Eseries powered by Symbian is Nokia's new cash cow and should fit well with corporate America. If Verizon starts offering Eseries devices as well, the market would most definitely take notice big time.
The Nokia E71x on AT&T and the Nokia E75 (unlocked) are pretty solid phones in the U.S. market. Eseries powered by Symbian is Nokia's new cash cow and should fit well with corporate America. If Verizon starts offering Eseries devices as well, the market would most definitely take notice big time.
Anyone who has used the e71x will tell you its a crippled abomination compared to the original.
Yes the E series have been successes and eaten up the N series market share the world over (E71,66,75,52,55 and if early user/editorial reviews are to be believed the e72).
Selling to US corps would require Nokia to get into bed with AT&T and previous history shows that those end devices leave a lot of people upset. Verizon being CDMA would be tough (although I dont see why the could not do a "World phone) + if you look @ the Twist on Verizon then you know the sw policies and decisions by those guys.
Yes the E series have been successes and eaten up the N series market share the world over (E71,66,75,52,55 and if early user/editorial reviews are to be believed the e72).
Selling to US corps would require Nokia to get into bed with AT&T and previous history shows that those end devices leave a lot of people upset. Verizon being CDMA would be tough (although I dont see why the could not do a "World phone) + if you look @ the Twist on Verizon then you know the sw policies and decisions by those guys.
I did have an overview of the topic, which is why I typed what I typed. :P
"The nokia booklet is crippled and expensive only in the US ($60/M + 7 Basic!). In the rest of the world you get 7 Premium and at much cheaper rates + faster speeds depending on the provider. Surely that's not a Nokia fault now is it?"
I have not done much research into the pricing of the Booklet 3g Beyond a quick google (shopping) search, Bearing in mind that I'm someone who prefers to buy my tech outright all at once rather than be tied to a hire purchase style contract for 1.5 to 2 years eventually paying god knows how many times over what the device is worth, that goes for phones as well as netbook/Data package dongle thingies.
www.google.co.uk/products?hl=en&source=hp&...
These prices vary from £500 - £600 sterling,
In terms of of buying outright however, stateside folk seem to have the better deal, with pricing at $600 ( "a la carte" according to gizmodo gizmodo.com/5401607/nokia-booklet-3g-review ) which at the time of writing = £362
Doing a search for other Win 7 Netbooks (again in blighty):
www.google.co.uk/products?hl=en&q=Windows+7+Ne...
shows a varying trend of £200-£350
But a Netbook, is a netbook, is a netbook. Hardware specs have hardly changed in this area within the last year or so (1.6GHz Atom CPU + 1GB RAM varying low RPM hard drives, and I own an EEEPC 1000H on which I upgraded the ram to 2GB ) Nokia have in no way re-invented the wheel here, they've just made it out of shiny lightweight chrome.
"d) Majority of the world cannot use Cap screens, (Cold weather, hand writing etc) and Nokia aims devices at the majority of the world. Check out the X6 if you want a Cap screened nokia. Also, please try the screen on a n900/n97 mini for yourself before you buy the FUD. Yes Cap screens are more responsive in comparison but Nokia's resistive screens are best in the business and perfectly optimized for touch. Do a google search for an n900 review and see how many non-us bloggers had problems with the screen."
Speaking as someone who has owned a resistive 320 x 240 res winmo device for the last 2+ years that was suposedly optimised for "touch friendliness" at the time it came out ( ie still requiring stylus a large amount of the time). Having experimented with Android devices and Ipod touches belonging to other people I can tell you that I'm well within my right to desire a cap screen on a device. In addition to...
"c) There is no perfect device and you will always have to make some form of compromise. The N900 is a beast and although as stated earlier, its not ready for the mass market, if you can live with a little bugs and hang on for the ride, its a pretty powerful device with a vibrant community support that will continually be updated. + It has things similar to WebOS (such as the notifications)."
There may not be a perfect device, but across varying devices and companies, the technology exists to make one (according to my wish lists at least, which includes a qwerty keyboard - which is why I don't fancy the X6) and aside from the resistive screen and software in the N97 it was damn near close to it. And the market is there for it Iphones and android devices are being used all over Europe there are many people who are staving off Iphones because "if only it had a qwerty". Take, for example, If the motorola droid/milestone. If that had what the N900/N97 had in terms of memory + expansion, I'd jump to that in a heartbeat.
"The nokia booklet is crippled and expensive only in the US ($60/M + 7 Basic!). In the rest of the world you get 7 Premium and at much cheaper rates + faster speeds depending on the provider. Surely that's not a Nokia fault now is it?"
I have not done much research into the pricing of the Booklet 3g Beyond a quick google (shopping) search, Bearing in mind that I'm someone who prefers to buy my tech outright all at once rather than be tied to a hire purchase style contract for 1.5 to 2 years eventually paying god knows how many times over what the device is worth, that goes for phones as well as netbook/Data package dongle thingies.
www.google.co.uk/products?hl=en&source=hp&...
These prices vary from £500 - £600 sterling,
In terms of of buying outright however, stateside folk seem to have the better deal, with pricing at $600 ( "a la carte" according to gizmodo gizmodo.com/5401607/nokia-booklet-3g-review ) which at the time of writing = £362
Doing a search for other Win 7 Netbooks (again in blighty):
www.google.co.uk/products?hl=en&q=Windows+7+Ne...
shows a varying trend of £200-£350
But a Netbook, is a netbook, is a netbook. Hardware specs have hardly changed in this area within the last year or so (1.6GHz Atom CPU + 1GB RAM varying low RPM hard drives, and I own an EEEPC 1000H on which I upgraded the ram to 2GB ) Nokia have in no way re-invented the wheel here, they've just made it out of shiny lightweight chrome.
"d) Majority of the world cannot use Cap screens, (Cold weather, hand writing etc) and Nokia aims devices at the majority of the world. Check out the X6 if you want a Cap screened nokia. Also, please try the screen on a n900/n97 mini for yourself before you buy the FUD. Yes Cap screens are more responsive in comparison but Nokia's resistive screens are best in the business and perfectly optimized for touch. Do a google search for an n900 review and see how many non-us bloggers had problems with the screen."
Speaking as someone who has owned a resistive 320 x 240 res winmo device for the last 2+ years that was suposedly optimised for "touch friendliness" at the time it came out ( ie still requiring stylus a large amount of the time). Having experimented with Android devices and Ipod touches belonging to other people I can tell you that I'm well within my right to desire a cap screen on a device. In addition to...
"c) There is no perfect device and you will always have to make some form of compromise. The N900 is a beast and although as stated earlier, its not ready for the mass market, if you can live with a little bugs and hang on for the ride, its a pretty powerful device with a vibrant community support that will continually be updated. + It has things similar to WebOS (such as the notifications)."
There may not be a perfect device, but across varying devices and companies, the technology exists to make one (according to my wish lists at least, which includes a qwerty keyboard - which is why I don't fancy the X6) and aside from the resistive screen and software in the N97 it was damn near close to it. And the market is there for it Iphones and android devices are being used all over Europe there are many people who are staving off Iphones because "if only it had a qwerty". Take, for example, If the motorola droid/milestone. If that had what the N900/N97 had in terms of memory + expansion, I'd jump to that in a heartbeat.
Nokia is facing two issues: In the US the inability to get US Mobile Operators to subsidize their better phones. They have to work on this and it seems it is hard, but they may be making some headway. AT&T is carrying the Booklet 3G, but you still can't get an N-Series in any carrier. Some people say that the problem is the lack of CDMA Nokia phones, and it seems Nokia is trying to fix that. I think the iPhone shows the problem is something else. Don't dismiss the possibility of an impasse between US Carriers and Nokia, as it is strange that none of them carry their phones.
Related to this is the software/OS problem. Symbian doesn't seem to cut it with the new type of phones breeding from the iPhone trail. Nokia response in an unproven Maemo, which is already behind Android despite having been available for years. Is Nokia falling into a "Not invented here" trap, will that ve their downfall?
Related to this is the software/OS problem. Symbian doesn't seem to cut it with the new type of phones breeding from the iPhone trail. Nokia response in an unproven Maemo, which is already behind Android despite having been available for years. Is Nokia falling into a "Not invented here" trap, will that ve their downfall?
Don't call it a comeback...
www.engadget.com/2009/06/15/ll-cool-js-hilariously...
Nokia is completely out of touch with its consumer base.
It seems like the company is half-heartedly trying to build mindshare to compensate for slipping marketshare and it isn't working.
www.engadget.com/2009/06/15/ll-cool-js-hilariously...
Nokia is completely out of touch with its consumer base.
It seems like the company is half-heartedly trying to build mindshare to compensate for slipping marketshare and it isn't working.
In the Smartphone market, everyone has to leverage something. Palm with it organizer, RIM with the first incredible real time email to the phone, Apple with its iPod and its prescient touch user interface. Nokia makes phones that work and last forever, but they have no creativity when it comes to exciting the user with a more expensive smart phone. They need to leverage their quality manufacturing and distribution (outside the US). They don't get these new markets. The NetBook they introduced has some nice features, but is grossly overpriced. Either they have to concentrate on what they do right, lower end phones that last forever or they need to totally revamp their strategy and stick with it by acquiring Palm for Jon Rubinstein and the Apple people he has brought over to Palm. Then they need to let Jon run the smartphone and eventually smartbook businesses and get out of the way! Palm might also help them enter the US market more effectively.
Nokia does sell smartphones. I don't know where you got the idea that it only sells dumb phones.
Your question of "right now, why change?" is totally out of place in any industry related to gadgets, and this is particularly true of cell phones. There seems to be a trend of all phones gaining smartphone-like qualities, perhaps all evolving into smartphones a few years down the line. There is no way a company will continue to sit idly by and let technology grow so rapidly without them. This is not the time for Nokia (or any other company, for that matter) to rest on its laurels.
Your question of "right now, why change?" is totally out of place in any industry related to gadgets, and this is particularly true of cell phones. There seems to be a trend of all phones gaining smartphone-like qualities, perhaps all evolving into smartphones a few years down the line. There is no way a company will continue to sit idly by and let technology grow so rapidly without them. This is not the time for Nokia (or any other company, for that matter) to rest on its laurels.
I agree with you, seriously, but that's exactly whay Nokia is doing. They're making tons of cash and while they do make smartphones - frankly they suck.
I think what I mean is is that a company so entrenched in selling cell phones in the 2001 model may find it difficult to move away from that. Somebody mentioned above company culture and how it's hard to change. I think that's a huge problem, and I think the complacency of the company is what's damaging them most.
In 5 years, you might see Nokia seriously falling off if they don't improve, but being devils advokate; they make a shit-ton everyday.
I think what I mean is is that a company so entrenched in selling cell phones in the 2001 model may find it difficult to move away from that. Somebody mentioned above company culture and how it's hard to change. I think that's a huge problem, and I think the complacency of the company is what's damaging them most.
In 5 years, you might see Nokia seriously falling off if they don't improve, but being devils advokate; they make a shit-ton everyday.
To look into the future of Nokia, I might suggest you guys to look into the past. I have been with Nokia since its 5100 Phone, upgraded to a 3310 -> 3315 -> 3650 -> 6600, with some support coming from 1100 during the 6600 phase. What I used to love about them Nokias was the fact that they were rock solid, high QC, high craftsmanship (build quality), etc.
But the last gems from Nokia were the early crop of S60 phones, they clearly represented a world of difference between half baked proprietary OSes used by other companies. They have been stuck in that phase for a long time !! Instead of Innovating as a whole, they choose to go with incremental updates, no version of the S60 is clearly distinct from the previous version, and lets not even talk about Maemo here. The Mass market has shunned Maemo, and will do the same with Maemo 5 !
Nokia in the present has a strategy that is reflected in it product line -- N Series phones, E Series, Music Xpress, S40 Feature & Entry level phones.
Nokia launched N Series to great hype, and the initial models from N70 right until N73 were wildly popular (i.e., in India) , but by then Samsung & other players came in with all guns blazing ! And as every body was familiar with Nokia's UI, they wanted change, and some even opted for LG's KIRFy phones ( the horror !!) and after a while the real trouble started -- THE iPhone launched !
Nokia sought to reverse their market loss and decided to rejuvenate their product lines, they detailed S60's move to the touch arena, 6 months after the iPhone's announcement !! ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=nM_q8oAPAKE) The Tube as it was notoriously codenamed. It even got itself into "The Dark Knight". Even that couldn't save it from its eventual fate.
N97 was promised to be Nokia's true entry into iPhone's newly acquired market. Even it had failed, EPIC-ly. My personal experience ( of a friend) has been nothing sort of a nightmare, had 3 replacements, 8 service ships, the current one is what the first one should have been like !
N97 mini has supposedly fixed those issues, and is supposedly been touted as the best VFM phone in the Mid High end market, but is powered by a weak ancient ARM 11 based 4xx MHz processor !!
ITS FUTURE PLAN:
Services:
Nokia's Ovi Maps implementation would improve for the better or worse, as it faces serious competition from Google's Navigation !
Nokia's Ovi Store, will have a (major - minor ?) structuring to even stand up to the App Store. N-Gage has been integrated into the Ovi store. Comes with Music may strip its DRM, a la iTunes.
Nokia's QC is currently non-existent, design flaws, Code irregularity and whatnot plague the N97. All these kinks have to be straightened out !
Also, FYI Nokia is working on a new flagship device to be released/announced? around 2011 (a year before the impending doom :P ) I have a few moles of my own :D
N900 is a reference device on which Nokia may choose to build future mobiles, its is AFAIK the highest specced Nokia mobile. Symbian may be well heading for a total overhaul as its presently being threatened by the iPhone OS, Palm OS and notwithstanding that, the upcoming "Project Pink" from MS. Nokia has to look straight and focus on all these factors, and reinforce its current strengths and if it decides to go all (drasticly) innovative on us. It shall do it by all means.
P.S: After the 6600, I went with Moto's Razr -> SE W830i | iPhone 2G . . . In the market for a phone now ! :(
But the last gems from Nokia were the early crop of S60 phones, they clearly represented a world of difference between half baked proprietary OSes used by other companies. They have been stuck in that phase for a long time !! Instead of Innovating as a whole, they choose to go with incremental updates, no version of the S60 is clearly distinct from the previous version, and lets not even talk about Maemo here. The Mass market has shunned Maemo, and will do the same with Maemo 5 !
Nokia in the present has a strategy that is reflected in it product line -- N Series phones, E Series, Music Xpress, S40 Feature & Entry level phones.
Nokia launched N Series to great hype, and the initial models from N70 right until N73 were wildly popular (i.e., in India) , but by then Samsung & other players came in with all guns blazing ! And as every body was familiar with Nokia's UI, they wanted change, and some even opted for LG's KIRFy phones ( the horror !!) and after a while the real trouble started -- THE iPhone launched !
Nokia sought to reverse their market loss and decided to rejuvenate their product lines, they detailed S60's move to the touch arena, 6 months after the iPhone's announcement !! ( www.youtube.com/watch?v=nM_q8oAPAKE) The Tube as it was notoriously codenamed. It even got itself into "The Dark Knight". Even that couldn't save it from its eventual fate.
N97 was promised to be Nokia's true entry into iPhone's newly acquired market. Even it had failed, EPIC-ly. My personal experience ( of a friend) has been nothing sort of a nightmare, had 3 replacements, 8 service ships, the current one is what the first one should have been like !
N97 mini has supposedly fixed those issues, and is supposedly been touted as the best VFM phone in the Mid High end market, but is powered by a weak ancient ARM 11 based 4xx MHz processor !!
ITS FUTURE PLAN:
Services:
Nokia's Ovi Maps implementation would improve for the better or worse, as it faces serious competition from Google's Navigation !
Nokia's Ovi Store, will have a (major - minor ?) structuring to even stand up to the App Store. N-Gage has been integrated into the Ovi store. Comes with Music may strip its DRM, a la iTunes.
Nokia's QC is currently non-existent, design flaws, Code irregularity and whatnot plague the N97. All these kinks have to be straightened out !
Also, FYI Nokia is working on a new flagship device to be released/announced? around 2011 (a year before the impending doom :P ) I have a few moles of my own :D
N900 is a reference device on which Nokia may choose to build future mobiles, its is AFAIK the highest specced Nokia mobile. Symbian may be well heading for a total overhaul as its presently being threatened by the iPhone OS, Palm OS and notwithstanding that, the upcoming "Project Pink" from MS. Nokia has to look straight and focus on all these factors, and reinforce its current strengths and if it decides to go all (drasticly) innovative on us. It shall do it by all means.
P.S: After the 6600, I went with Moto's Razr -> SE W830i | iPhone 2G . . . In the market for a phone now ! :(
If I start calling FUD on all your points it will end up into a two page long reply! So here's just one:
" The Tube as it was notoriously codenamed. It even got itself into "The Dark Knight". Even that couldn't save it from its eventual fate"
Are you referring to the 5800xm? And by eventual fate do you mean it becoming a raging success which sold close to 15M units in less than a year and cannibalized markets for their touch screen portfolio, leading to delays!?
Yup that was a disaster. Just like Samsung's 8% Market share in India! (what kinda "guns blazing" strategy was that!?).
" The Tube as it was notoriously codenamed. It even got itself into "The Dark Knight". Even that couldn't save it from its eventual fate"
Are you referring to the 5800xm? And by eventual fate do you mean it becoming a raging success which sold close to 15M units in less than a year and cannibalized markets for their touch screen portfolio, leading to delays!?
Yup that was a disaster. Just like Samsung's 8% Market share in India! (what kinda "guns blazing" strategy was that!?).
Sales are just one equation of success, customer satisfaction is valued much more, I did conduct a small survey about touch screen mobile phones, the ones with 5800xm were not as pleased as the ones with HTC G1 or other HTC Android phones, or iPhone 2G or other phones in the same category.
Also, Samsung currently has 8% market share, but I suggest you to take a look at the last 4 months sales by Samsung. I can literally spot 4 out of ten people in a group sporting an El Cheapo no wifi Samsung mobile, reason: Just cause its touch & is cheap ! FYI Samsung's sales has been through the roof for the past few months, your argument invalidates itself if you look at the iPhone, it has like just 10% of worldwide market share, but is already a benchmark ! Its the growth that matters, not the market share !
I'm just saying that Nokia should value customer satisfaction more, work on a model that does a few things but at its best, not a "Jack of All trades, Master of none" approach !
P.S: Here is that YouTube video i'd posted, www.youtube.com/watch?v=nM_q8oAPAKE Its about Symbian's move to finger friendly UI (late 2007)
Also, Samsung currently has 8% market share, but I suggest you to take a look at the last 4 months sales by Samsung. I can literally spot 4 out of ten people in a group sporting an El Cheapo no wifi Samsung mobile, reason: Just cause its touch & is cheap ! FYI Samsung's sales has been through the roof for the past few months, your argument invalidates itself if you look at the iPhone, it has like just 10% of worldwide market share, but is already a benchmark ! Its the growth that matters, not the market share !
I'm just saying that Nokia should value customer satisfaction more, work on a model that does a few things but at its best, not a "Jack of All trades, Master of none" approach !
P.S: Here is that YouTube video i'd posted, www.youtube.com/watch?v=nM_q8oAPAKE Its about Symbian's move to finger friendly UI (late 2007)
Idk what kind of survey you undertook nor do I have access to the market research regarding the customer satisfaction, however looking at the numbers from just 3 Asian & UK (Vodafone,Singtel and Orange) carriers shows that 5800 has been in the top 5 even a year + after launch and google shows no reports of a recall or major consumer complaint. I've met dozens of people over the past year across the world who have been using the device (some swtiching from the iphone 2g & magic) and have largely been happy. This is not to say that their opinions is universal or forms some form of scientific survey but saying that the users are not happy with the device is going a bit far.
The 8% number for Samsung I quoted was from Q3 09 so it should have been accurate till September.
Samsung does not sell a cheap touch screen smartphone in the subcontinent. What you are reffering to maybe the Jet/Galaxy which is a dumbphone and has no direct competition from Nokia and the 2 cheap "xpress" (music focused , touchscreen phones) have just recently been released in the market and their numbers wont feature till Q4 09/ Q1 10.
The iphone being a great,innovative and path-breaking device is not in question. The point is that the device is not as popular worldwide as people think. The numbers over the past 3 quaters show stagnation or very little growth in most of the markets where Apple launched its device.
The smartphone market share has had explosive growth over the past two years and Apple have done well with a great product. But the high percentage gains is nothing but a hog-wash. If a product is not available in the market and you sell just one of it, thats 100% growth. It does not mean that 100% of the people are buying it!
+ If you look at the numbers from the analysis and reports, Nokia has ceded the largest share to RIM/Blackberry and not the iphone.
Customer satisfaction is paramount and one would think that a company which takes up 2+ billion in research would know this, but whats "satisfaction" to one customer might not be important to another.
The 8% number for Samsung I quoted was from Q3 09 so it should have been accurate till September.
Samsung does not sell a cheap touch screen smartphone in the subcontinent. What you are reffering to maybe the Jet/Galaxy which is a dumbphone and has no direct competition from Nokia and the 2 cheap "xpress" (music focused , touchscreen phones) have just recently been released in the market and their numbers wont feature till Q4 09/ Q1 10.
The iphone being a great,innovative and path-breaking device is not in question. The point is that the device is not as popular worldwide as people think. The numbers over the past 3 quaters show stagnation or very little growth in most of the markets where Apple launched its device.
The smartphone market share has had explosive growth over the past two years and Apple have done well with a great product. But the high percentage gains is nothing but a hog-wash. If a product is not available in the market and you sell just one of it, thats 100% growth. It does not mean that 100% of the people are buying it!
+ If you look at the numbers from the analysis and reports, Nokia has ceded the largest share to RIM/Blackberry and not the iphone.
Customer satisfaction is paramount and one would think that a company which takes up 2+ billion in research would know this, but whats "satisfaction" to one customer might not be important to another.
I agree with a lot of the sentiment expressed so far. It feels like Nokia is doing lots of experimenting and science projects but doesn't have a solid product to take them into the future. I believe its a company culture issue at the top that filters down and affects things like software, usability, UI, etc. If I were to guess on how the company is structured on a power level, I'd say that engineers and researchers are the "ruling class" where they need to have designers and product visionaries driving the ship.
Obviously company culture is near impossible to change so Peter's suggestion of pulling an 'Xbox' is probably the best strategy. However, judging by the mediocre products they've been pushing out lately I don't know if senior management is able to spot someone like a J Allard from Microsoft to lead that team. Having the right people on their 'Xbox'-offsite-style team are super important to make sure it didn't become another experiment or R&D sink hole.
With no real product leaders that have a strong vision to fight for their cause, MBA's and engineers take over and it becomes a death spiral of pumping the stock price and quarterly revenues. I think that's how Nokia got into this position. While they can make a TON of money off of selling generic phones to huge markets now, without designers & people with vivid product vision in this industry your future is bleak.
Obviously company culture is near impossible to change so Peter's suggestion of pulling an 'Xbox' is probably the best strategy. However, judging by the mediocre products they've been pushing out lately I don't know if senior management is able to spot someone like a J Allard from Microsoft to lead that team. Having the right people on their 'Xbox'-offsite-style team are super important to make sure it didn't become another experiment or R&D sink hole.
With no real product leaders that have a strong vision to fight for their cause, MBA's and engineers take over and it becomes a death spiral of pumping the stock price and quarterly revenues. I think that's how Nokia got into this position. While they can make a TON of money off of selling generic phones to huge markets now, without designers & people with vivid product vision in this industry your future is bleak.
Google has suggested that Android OS and Chrome OS will become one down the road. A key here is the way a mobile operating system will be expected to handle memory usage in the future. The Nokia N900 and Maemo gives a taste of that, since it's got a virtual memory to for instance handle large temporary Web files with ease. In other words, Nokia is for the time being ahead of Google that way. Of course, that might be something Google will not tell you, but it’s still the case nevertheless. In other words, if you see people bashing Maemo, they're kind of bashing an inevitable future in mobility. Maemo is also open-source. Nokia contributes to the Maemo development, like Google contributes to the Android development. If Samsung, which tend to support everything out there, wants to offer Maemo devices, they are free to do so. I guess they will when Maemo 6 arrives.
Android!
Nokia's OS is utter tripe, what they need is to focus on hardware, which they *can* do very well and let Android be the bones. Look at the way HTC takes Android, adds its own magic and boom = HTC Hero. It means no more competing apps stores, you remove the resistive touchscreen issues and your software production turnaround is much shorter.
Especially under the threat of Apple, I think Nokia needs to forget where it came from - the old mobile industry, where the OS did nothing but calls and calendar and apps weren't even on the horizon. I honestly think Android is the way to do that...
Also; Nokia can't beat Apple at the unified experience model. The iPhone and iTunes etc are so slick that there's no way they can match it.
Nokia's OS is utter tripe, what they need is to focus on hardware, which they *can* do very well and let Android be the bones. Look at the way HTC takes Android, adds its own magic and boom = HTC Hero. It means no more competing apps stores, you remove the resistive touchscreen issues and your software production turnaround is much shorter.
Especially under the threat of Apple, I think Nokia needs to forget where it came from - the old mobile industry, where the OS did nothing but calls and calendar and apps weren't even on the horizon. I honestly think Android is the way to do that...
Also; Nokia can't beat Apple at the unified experience model. The iPhone and iTunes etc are so slick that there's no way they can match it.
There are the Series Plattforms, but Nokia tried to cut prices in 2008 (www.reuters.com/article/technologyNews/idUSL151325...). That decision lasts onto now. So the multimedia-line N-Series is only marginally better than cheap phones like the 5800 XpressMusic. Ther is also confusion of making the phone capable of everything or building an infrastructure around like Ovi Services and Nokia Phone Suite. On the other side is Nokia working on technically perfect services but don't care about usability. Take a try with Nokia e-mail or Ovi Maps! Phones have become so capable in the last two years, the real challange is to make it usable for the user. And there are many ideas floating thru the company, like accellerometer control of incoming calls. But there is no plan, what has to be in what model.
If you're going to write a column on the future of Nokia, you're sure picking a difficult topic. The most important thing for the future of Nokia is that they're back on Earth, after taking off with major plans for the Web a few years ago. It's a fact that they didn't acknowledge Web services as what they are, in constant change and not something that Nokia should directly interfere with. Part of their new service strategy is to follow the heartbeats of the Web from a certain distance and support them thereafter.
They lost focus when it comes to those few phones at the top that should be cool and ahead of its time. There's no doubt that companies like Nokia may currently rely too heavily on research in the market. What do users want? It's a fair question to ask, but for those few phones at the top one can't rely on what people want today. Then everybody out there could simply join the industry and start making phones.
It's no doubt that Nokia really want to succeed in getting a lot of attention from high-end users again though. At the same time the market is changing. The mobile industry is still a fresh industry, with new generations following all of us that are starting to get old. If you look at what Nokia is doing at the time being, it's pumping out handsets for those new generations. It's probably a pretty smart strategy.
Nokia's platform strategy is becoming pretty clear: Qt is supposed to be the main framework on both Symbian and Maemo. However, current Maemo apps will still be able to run on Maemo 6 in an own runtime environment. That's not a new concept in the mobile world obviously. Furthermore, Nokia will also support Flash and Silverlight plug-ins. They're currently also encouraging developers to create Flash apps. A pretty cool Twitter client was recently showcased by Nokia Conversations for instance.
All these various apps will in the future be available through Nokia Ovi Store. The same goes for games. Nokia will no longer add extra effort in a select few games to compete with portable video consoles, but promote the latest and greatest mobile games equally like everyone else.
All in all it looks like Nokia will get a great future. There are others that should worry more.
They lost focus when it comes to those few phones at the top that should be cool and ahead of its time. There's no doubt that companies like Nokia may currently rely too heavily on research in the market. What do users want? It's a fair question to ask, but for those few phones at the top one can't rely on what people want today. Then everybody out there could simply join the industry and start making phones.
It's no doubt that Nokia really want to succeed in getting a lot of attention from high-end users again though. At the same time the market is changing. The mobile industry is still a fresh industry, with new generations following all of us that are starting to get old. If you look at what Nokia is doing at the time being, it's pumping out handsets for those new generations. It's probably a pretty smart strategy.
Nokia's platform strategy is becoming pretty clear: Qt is supposed to be the main framework on both Symbian and Maemo. However, current Maemo apps will still be able to run on Maemo 6 in an own runtime environment. That's not a new concept in the mobile world obviously. Furthermore, Nokia will also support Flash and Silverlight plug-ins. They're currently also encouraging developers to create Flash apps. A pretty cool Twitter client was recently showcased by Nokia Conversations for instance.
All these various apps will in the future be available through Nokia Ovi Store. The same goes for games. Nokia will no longer add extra effort in a select few games to compete with portable video consoles, but promote the latest and greatest mobile games equally like everyone else.
All in all it looks like Nokia will get a great future. There are others that should worry more.
Nokia's problem (among many) is the pricing and accessibility of their smartphones and the lackluster ovi store.
The ovi store really reflects the state of development across the Symbian platform. If I were to buy a Nokia phone right now, open the ovi store and search for a twitter app this would be what my selection would look like store.ovi.com/search?q=twitter , for the major web apps people use, there aren't any standout (free) apps and browsing the ovi store reveals a wide array of weak apps. The Symbian app selection is even worse ( www.symbian.org/applications ). App stores are evolving quick, and if Nokia doesn't completely overhaul the ovi store, consumers will increasingly gravitate toward the Apple app store and the Android marketplace, as that will be where the apps of interest are.
Secondly, simply obtaining the latest Nokia smartphones is oftentimes a difficult task. The fact that you can't even find phones like the N900, N97, N97 mini in stores really hurts Nokia's visibility in the states. On the contrary, you can find xpress music phones or whatever low end Nokia phones in most major carrier's stores. I feel that Nokia has to overcome a perception gap in the states. They need to distribute and market their higher end phones much more aggressively here.
Nokia and Sony Ericsson both have similar problems in that they make cool phones, but they are overpriced and marketed very poorly. Simply cramming cool tech into a touchscreen phone isn't enough if people (who aren't enthusiasts) don't know about it and you don't differentiate yourself from the competition.
At this point Nokia needs to revamp their software and app store strategy and possibly consider going with Android on all their smartphones.
The ovi store really reflects the state of development across the Symbian platform. If I were to buy a Nokia phone right now, open the ovi store and search for a twitter app this would be what my selection would look like store.ovi.com/search?q=twitter , for the major web apps people use, there aren't any standout (free) apps and browsing the ovi store reveals a wide array of weak apps. The Symbian app selection is even worse ( www.symbian.org/applications ). App stores are evolving quick, and if Nokia doesn't completely overhaul the ovi store, consumers will increasingly gravitate toward the Apple app store and the Android marketplace, as that will be where the apps of interest are.
Secondly, simply obtaining the latest Nokia smartphones is oftentimes a difficult task. The fact that you can't even find phones like the N900, N97, N97 mini in stores really hurts Nokia's visibility in the states. On the contrary, you can find xpress music phones or whatever low end Nokia phones in most major carrier's stores. I feel that Nokia has to overcome a perception gap in the states. They need to distribute and market their higher end phones much more aggressively here.
Nokia and Sony Ericsson both have similar problems in that they make cool phones, but they are overpriced and marketed very poorly. Simply cramming cool tech into a touchscreen phone isn't enough if people (who aren't enthusiasts) don't know about it and you don't differentiate yourself from the competition.
At this point Nokia needs to revamp their software and app store strategy and possibly consider going with Android on all their smartphones.
Almost feels like Nokia is trying to find new markets that it can break into and throw R&D money at it. Problem is, they're not sure which market to focus on. They're slowly becoming a jack of all trades and master of none.
The Maemo platform is completely being sold as something it isn't. They keep saying its a "mobile computer" but honestly it is an internet tablet with a phone app strapped on.
S60 has been aging with very little innovation. I'm sure their plan 5 years ago was to have S60 become the standard of what S40 was in the early 2000s but I don't think Nokia realized the market was changing. They have hubris to think they're the market leader that can set standards and trends when they are slowly becoming the opposite of that.
I don't even know why they're in the booklet/netbook market.
They keep producing thousand dollar 8800 series phones which I have no idea who would buy?
Their "normal" phone offerings seem like they're just going through the motions of satisfying carriers with something they can subsidize as a cheap or free phone.
Nokia's lost its way and I don't know if they have the ability to find it again.
The Maemo platform is completely being sold as something it isn't. They keep saying its a "mobile computer" but honestly it is an internet tablet with a phone app strapped on.
S60 has been aging with very little innovation. I'm sure their plan 5 years ago was to have S60 become the standard of what S40 was in the early 2000s but I don't think Nokia realized the market was changing. They have hubris to think they're the market leader that can set standards and trends when they are slowly becoming the opposite of that.
I don't even know why they're in the booklet/netbook market.
They keep producing thousand dollar 8800 series phones which I have no idea who would buy?
Their "normal" phone offerings seem like they're just going through the motions of satisfying carriers with something they can subsidize as a cheap or free phone.
Nokia's lost its way and I don't know if they have the ability to find it again.
At this point I wonder if Nokia isn't best served with ignoring the high end of the smartphone market and focus on the low end. There's tons of money to be made selling handsets in Africa, Asia and other parts of the world where the networks can't handle rich mobile apps and the customers won't pay top-shelf prices for handsets. The big American smartphone makers are years away from serving this market.
I remain baffled by Nokia's approach to the USA market.
I remain baffled by Nokia's approach to the USA market.
This might not be a bad idea at all, though they'd probably still need to have some high-end handsets (even if they didn't sell very well) to create a halo effect around the brand.
There definitely is plenty of money to be made by focusing on only the low-end of the market, I just don't think that psychologically Nokia is ready to cede the higher end of the market to Apple, HTC, RIM, Palm etc., even if that's what they have effectively been doing (at least here in the US).
There definitely is plenty of money to be made by focusing on only the low-end of the market, I just don't think that psychologically Nokia is ready to cede the higher end of the market to Apple, HTC, RIM, Palm etc., even if that's what they have effectively been doing (at least here in the US).
You guys are both onto something with regard to Nokia's presence in the US market.
For years, Nokia has enjoyed a dominant position in Europe, where the company's marketshare is often greater than 50%. Likewise, their early investments in China and India have paid off tremendously, keeping their global handset marketshare near 40%, in spite of relatively poor performances in the US and Japan.
But Nokia's performance in the US market is uniquely affected by company culture. It's a psychological issue, and here's why.
The US market is unique because operators own the relationship with the consumer; Americans buy heavily subsidized (and often free) devices through their service provider in exchange for signing a long-term contract. "Buy a Samsung and get a Nokia for free." This is frustrating to a company like Nokia, which is very proud of its brand and hesitant to cede that relationship with the consumer to an operator. Whether through software components, on-device branding, packaging or other means, operators actively remove Nokia brand elements and insert their own.
The Nokia flagship stores, for example, don't exist to generate sales volume. They're primarily branding exercises, enabling US consumers to experience Nokia and its flagship products without carrier interference. As long as Americans continue to expect cheap or free phones, and Nokia doesn't want to play by the carriers' rules, the company's footprint in the US market will remain marginalized.
Nokia's platform strategy and flagship products are another (entirely complex) matter. S60 is a hugely successful platform to date by any measure, and the company is hesitant to rapidly transition away from it because of that success and the size of their organization. As Peter said, a classic innovator's dilemma.
Symbian ^X is not a platform for advanced devices to be rolled out in 2015, due to the age of its core. EPOC is nearing 20 years old, after all, and there aren't many open source developers who are fluent in its codebase. That's where Linux-based Maemo comes in, and Qt provides a bridge to ease the transition for developers. Think of Carbon and the transition from classic Mac OS to Mac OS X...
Flagship devices will always remain important to the company, and I can't see them ceding that market anytime soon. From the early Nokia Communicator 9000 series to today's N900, they provide a halo effect for an executive team which prides itself on the Nokia brand.
So where do they go from here? Hard to say. They are unlikely to move as quickly with form factors as newer hardware players like HTC, and their software platform is likely slower to evolve than products like webOS or Android. But I've seen Nokia become very fleet footed when it needs to, and make rapid organizational changes accordingly.
It'll be interesting to watch.
For years, Nokia has enjoyed a dominant position in Europe, where the company's marketshare is often greater than 50%. Likewise, their early investments in China and India have paid off tremendously, keeping their global handset marketshare near 40%, in spite of relatively poor performances in the US and Japan.
But Nokia's performance in the US market is uniquely affected by company culture. It's a psychological issue, and here's why.
The US market is unique because operators own the relationship with the consumer; Americans buy heavily subsidized (and often free) devices through their service provider in exchange for signing a long-term contract. "Buy a Samsung and get a Nokia for free." This is frustrating to a company like Nokia, which is very proud of its brand and hesitant to cede that relationship with the consumer to an operator. Whether through software components, on-device branding, packaging or other means, operators actively remove Nokia brand elements and insert their own.
The Nokia flagship stores, for example, don't exist to generate sales volume. They're primarily branding exercises, enabling US consumers to experience Nokia and its flagship products without carrier interference. As long as Americans continue to expect cheap or free phones, and Nokia doesn't want to play by the carriers' rules, the company's footprint in the US market will remain marginalized.
Nokia's platform strategy and flagship products are another (entirely complex) matter. S60 is a hugely successful platform to date by any measure, and the company is hesitant to rapidly transition away from it because of that success and the size of their organization. As Peter said, a classic innovator's dilemma.
Symbian ^X is not a platform for advanced devices to be rolled out in 2015, due to the age of its core. EPOC is nearing 20 years old, after all, and there aren't many open source developers who are fluent in its codebase. That's where Linux-based Maemo comes in, and Qt provides a bridge to ease the transition for developers. Think of Carbon and the transition from classic Mac OS to Mac OS X...
Flagship devices will always remain important to the company, and I can't see them ceding that market anytime soon. From the early Nokia Communicator 9000 series to today's N900, they provide a halo effect for an executive team which prides itself on the Nokia brand.
So where do they go from here? Hard to say. They are unlikely to move as quickly with form factors as newer hardware players like HTC, and their software platform is likely slower to evolve than products like webOS or Android. But I've seen Nokia become very fleet footed when it needs to, and make rapid organizational changes accordingly.
It'll be interesting to watch.
N900 in the time I spent with it feels more like a science project than finished product. Mass market need not apply. Likewise, Booklet is a product with an odd mix of features with a very high price point. I think Nokia can make a lot of money selling low end (whatever that means) to the emerging market with some degree of services but that's not a velocity that keeps them relevant to the market. I'm wondering though if it's what Peter says and it's classic innovators dilemma or if there's something more here at play that's a core part of the company culture.
I mean, someone had to review and sign off on some pretty bizarre products and strategies over the last few years. (WiMax Internet Tablet, i'm looking at you.)
I mean, someone had to review and sign off on some pretty bizarre products and strategies over the last few years. (WiMax Internet Tablet, i'm looking at you.)
Great topic. I've found the company's products excellent on performance and reliability. Usability and some aspects of design have been off, but I'd still give Nokia a B+ for hardware design. This profile in Fast Company provides a comprehensive look at other aspects of Nokiastrategy, but it concentrates more on media than services and platform.
www.fastcompany.com/magazine/138/iphone-envy-you-m...
www.fastcompany.com/magazine/138/iphone-envy-you-m...
I'm not sure what the strategy is as I see it ever changing. And even when there's some semblance of strategy -- I'm not sure it's ever been the "right" one -- it either takes far too long to implement or has some noticeable gaps on day one.
At this point, Nokia is so far behind competitors in the smartphone market, it needs to throw away most of its rich history and start with a vision followed by a timetable. Maemo & the N900 might be exactly that, but it's too soon to say and I haven't yet used the device.
I don't see much value in the services side and would rather see focused efforts on the hardware / OS side, which is where I think they're stronger. Services could help sell hardware as we all know, but they have to be solid, value-add by comparison to existing services. I don't think they are at this point.
At this point, Nokia is so far behind competitors in the smartphone market, it needs to throw away most of its rich history and start with a vision followed by a timetable. Maemo & the N900 might be exactly that, but it's too soon to say and I haven't yet used the device.
I don't see much value in the services side and would rather see focused efforts on the hardware / OS side, which is where I think they're stronger. Services could help sell hardware as we all know, but they have to be solid, value-add by comparison to existing services. I don't think they are at this point.
I agree that Nokia doesn't seem to have a coherent strategy moving forward, but I don't understand by your statement (often made by others too) that Nokia is behind other smartphone makers. They were the first to come out with a Webkit-based browser, they have been using 5 megapixel cameras for years that still lead all others, they always have the best phone call quality and RF reception, they multitask well, they have an icon-based launcher that is actually customizable, most have good stereo speakers, etc. They do take a bit of practice to get used to, but once you do you can see they are extremely powerful and customizable. The UI could stand an upgrade, but the BlackBerry OS is a whole lot worse and no one seems to be talking much about them needing to make major changes.
Fair criticism to my statement, so let me clarify. ;) Nokia isn't behind in features, it's behind in usability, which I believe is far more important. Put another way: I can overlook some missing features in one device if it's easier to use and offers a more enjoyable, intuitive interface. UI isn't everything of course, but if it's too frustrating to use or find a function, it might as well not be there.
Good point on BlackBerry and I'm in agreement with you there. I expect their growth trend to slow for the very same reason.
Good point on BlackBerry and I'm in agreement with you there. I expect their growth trend to slow for the very same reason.
But RIM has found a way to distinguish BlackBerry devices from other smartphones, and in fact has at least a single way to show that they're still better than some of their competitor's devices. Nokia, on the other hand, seems to expect the world to just sit back and accept the sheer vastness of its presence in the market as a reason for its continued existence... and it's not. Citing how many phones you make and sell doesn't make you innovative.
I agree that RIM and Nokia face similar problems, but by being far smaller (and so far, smarter), RIM seems like it will be able to adapt. Nokia hasn't proven it's even interested in adapting -- rather, that it should be the other way around. It is truly a maddening psychology, and a recipe for disaster.
I agree that RIM and Nokia face similar problems, but by being far smaller (and so far, smarter), RIM seems like it will be able to adapt. Nokia hasn't proven it's even interested in adapting -- rather, that it should be the other way around. It is truly a maddening psychology, and a recipe for disaster.
RIM's main challenge is that they're really not making smartphones. They are "just" QWERTY messaging phones when looking at them with hard eyes. Their upcoming support of Adobe technology should give RIM a nice Web-oriented boost though, which would obviously give their Storm lineup a new dimension as well. The new browser should also obviously become a nice addition.
When looking at RIM's current sales numbers, it's difficult to see how they cannot succeed also in the future. However, their server-side stuff is getting old though. A corporate cloud service like Microsoft's Exchange is now actually starting to work reliably. That was not the case during RIM's first successful years. Lotus and Novell plug-ins for Exchange should be out now as well (or at least on its way), which must be a sign of "direct Exchange solutions" reaching new heights.
Now that Nokia is working with Microsoft on Exchange (as well as the upcoming Office suite), it's not going to be easy for RIM. New Nokia phones no longer support BlackBerry Connect either, which is a clear sign of a new war on attracting corporate customers being on the horizon. Nokia’s Eseries is about to become a cash cow for Nokia and Symbian, no doubt about it.
When looking at RIM's current sales numbers, it's difficult to see how they cannot succeed also in the future. However, their server-side stuff is getting old though. A corporate cloud service like Microsoft's Exchange is now actually starting to work reliably. That was not the case during RIM's first successful years. Lotus and Novell plug-ins for Exchange should be out now as well (or at least on its way), which must be a sign of "direct Exchange solutions" reaching new heights.
Now that Nokia is working with Microsoft on Exchange (as well as the upcoming Office suite), it's not going to be easy for RIM. New Nokia phones no longer support BlackBerry Connect either, which is a clear sign of a new war on attracting corporate customers being on the horizon. Nokia’s Eseries is about to become a cash cow for Nokia and Symbian, no doubt about it.
Yep. Nokia is behind in smart phone features and usability. All true. Today.
They missed that competitive turn to Touch/UX completely.
But that is just another turn, that lasts 2-5 years, and then shifts to somethin else entirely.
Nokia ruled the mobile hardware innovation cycle completely. Missed the shift to software/UX completely. Thank's to iPhone, that came out of nowhere and shifted the industry dynamics way ahead of time that Nokia expected.
Still, just as hardware got good enough in 2007, software/UX is gettin good enough just about now.
Except for the artificially created smartphone category, it's all about Samsung vs Nokia in mobile devices.
And Maemo vs. Android, and, maybe. Samsung Bada 2.0, everywhere else. iPhone, RIM, WebOS - they have their niche and will stay there
They missed that competitive turn to Touch/UX completely.
But that is just another turn, that lasts 2-5 years, and then shifts to somethin else entirely.
Nokia ruled the mobile hardware innovation cycle completely. Missed the shift to software/UX completely. Thank's to iPhone, that came out of nowhere and shifted the industry dynamics way ahead of time that Nokia expected.
Still, just as hardware got good enough in 2007, software/UX is gettin good enough just about now.
Except for the artificially created smartphone category, it's all about Samsung vs Nokia in mobile devices.
And Maemo vs. Android, and, maybe. Samsung Bada 2.0, everywhere else. iPhone, RIM, WebOS - they have their niche and will stay there
@KevinCTofel
Nokia will have a very clear strategy of working closely with Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile in the U.S. market moving forward. There's no chance these carriers will subsidize Maemo phones before they're rock solid though, and then they'll need time to come up with their own tweaks and customizations, then testing, then new tweaks etc. It’ll take years from today. Just look at Android, only T-Mobile wanted to get near Android 1.0.
The current interface on Maemo will be replaced by a new Qt based interface, and it’s not unlikely to expect that it’ll aim at improving usability. For instance that persistent connection issue in S60 is a good example of the lack of usability for a professional user. Quick access to control stuff that's related to improving battery life should be regarded as high priority on every platform. Of course, that doesn’t mean that we want Apple to make all the decisions for us up front though, then the Android way is better: Let the users mess around and decide how things should be at any given time.
Nokia will have a very clear strategy of working closely with Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile in the U.S. market moving forward. There's no chance these carriers will subsidize Maemo phones before they're rock solid though, and then they'll need time to come up with their own tweaks and customizations, then testing, then new tweaks etc. It’ll take years from today. Just look at Android, only T-Mobile wanted to get near Android 1.0.
The current interface on Maemo will be replaced by a new Qt based interface, and it’s not unlikely to expect that it’ll aim at improving usability. For instance that persistent connection issue in S60 is a good example of the lack of usability for a professional user. Quick access to control stuff that's related to improving battery life should be regarded as high priority on every platform. Of course, that doesn’t mean that we want Apple to make all the decisions for us up front though, then the Android way is better: Let the users mess around and decide how things should be at any given time.
It's worth mentioning that I did not take solutions like iAnywhere into account here. There's already a Bluetooth stack from iAnywhere available for Android, and if they start offering the rest of their solutions on Android there'll soon be corporate users that'll not be able to mess around with their Android phone the way a consumer would.
Nokia has a classic innovator's dilemma: they're so big and (at least to-date) have been so dominant that it's been hard for them to create innovative new products which might cannibalize their existing product lines. I think they may have to borrow a page from Microsoft's playbook when it wanted to create the Xbox: find someone with vision and then give them the resources to do whatever they need to to create ONE world-class phone with a great OS. Don't worry about creating a whole product line, and don't worry about any legacy Nokia stuff, just create an amazing phone.
My Slashgear column this month directly addresses this issue - the N900 isn't that phone. www.slashgear.com/should-nokia-abandon-symbian-s60...
Well, I read your N900 review, and agree with most of your conclusions, that N900 isn't "that phone" for most of them.
Heck, I just unintentionally deleted and lost all my Skype contacts playing with N900 due to a major UX design bug.
Yep. It's not "that phone" (yet). And Nokia freely and publicly admits that. That phone will come out next year.
But I am lost ( i.e sick and tired) of that "Innovators Dilemma" applied to iPhone vs Nokia.
I haven't read a sequel, but I've read the original ID top to bottom a few times. And isn't Innovators Dilemma about newcomers takin off the shelf components, making cheaper, inferior stuff, that eventually becomes good enough, creates new markets and renders the incumbents irrelevant?
I admit, Android may get there eventually if Nokia was asleep. But iPhone??!! What about that overpriced, albeit very fashionable and attractive device, which wasn't able to become a hit anywhere outside of U.S and (maybe U.K) has anythin to do with innovators dilemma?
Heck, I just unintentionally deleted and lost all my Skype contacts playing with N900 due to a major UX design bug.
Yep. It's not "that phone" (yet). And Nokia freely and publicly admits that. That phone will come out next year.
But I am lost ( i.e sick and tired) of that "Innovators Dilemma" applied to iPhone vs Nokia.
I haven't read a sequel, but I've read the original ID top to bottom a few times. And isn't Innovators Dilemma about newcomers takin off the shelf components, making cheaper, inferior stuff, that eventually becomes good enough, creates new markets and renders the incumbents irrelevant?
I admit, Android may get there eventually if Nokia was asleep. But iPhone??!! What about that overpriced, albeit very fashionable and attractive device, which wasn't able to become a hit anywhere outside of U.S and (maybe U.K) has anythin to do with innovators dilemma?
