So, the rumors weren't true.
New-iPhone-mania was kicked off earlier this year by a big story purporting that the 2011 iPhone wouldn't, in fact, be a "spec bump to the iPhone 4" (which we now know it is), and that the device would be a "completely redesigned handset" with a "teardrop" shape with a "swipe area," and potentially also inductive charging.
There were also stories that another prototype iPhone handset was lost in Asia this year, which led to all the speculative case designs we saw coming out. What seems increasingly clear is that Apple still has a few secret-keeping tricks up its sleeves, and that the company may have been doing quite a bit of misdirection for this year's device.
An iPhone 4S by any other name...
All these radical-iPhone-redesign rumors didn't help Apple's taken an every-other-year hype cycle for the iPhone. The iPhone 1st-gen was obviously a game-changer, but its market impact was limited (by its $600 price tag, being on only one carrier in the world, and many other factors). It wasn't until year two -- the iPhone 3G -- that the iPhone broke out and hit the hockey-stick growth curve. The 3GS was incremental, but the 4 was huge.
So it makes sense, given Apple's pattern of a major new iPhone every other year, that this year's device wouldn't completely blow the doors off. Either way, I don't entirely understand why so many people are disappointed by the iPhone 4S. Yes, I would absolutely love to have a bigger screen on my device, but is the 4S really not capable enough otherwise? Is it really unworthy of the name iPhone? Is it actually likely this thing will suddenly cease to be the best selling smartphone in the world, and stop making Apple ridiculous amounts of money?
The free iPhone is actually the game-changer
I've been saying for years that Apple needs to have a two-generation-old iPhone as a free phone (under contract, of course). Over the last few years, each new device has pushed the last one downward into the $99 area, which is a key price point for smartphones.
Maybe it's all the downward pressure of low-end Android handsets, or maybe Apple figured the 3GS was the first iPhone actually good enough to still be used by consumers a full 2-3 years after its initial release, but whatever led Apple to finally release a free iPhone, I expect this to truly change the number of Apple handsets in consumers' hands within the next year.
So, where was Jony Ive?
Maybe it's just me, but for Cook's first launch as CEO (and arguably the most important single product launch of 2011), I kind of expected Tim to rally the executive team. I can't say for sure Jony wasn't there yesterday (he usually is, but I didn't notice him this time), but Ive certainly didn't have a presence in any of the videos where Apple's team of talking-head executives extolled the virtues of their latest world-changing product. I haven't heard of any turmoil there -- nor do I want to generate any -- but considering how Steve and Jony were thick as thieves, I personally would have liked to have seen the Jony seal of approval on Tim's debut announcement.
P.S. -The GSM / CDMA worldphone functionality of the 4S is genuinely impressive
It's no secret that phone antenna design is one of the most difficult engineering challenges in the handset industry, and I'm not sure I've ever seen a dual-mode worldphone engineered with as much (apparent) finesse as the 4S. We still have to see just how well it performs in the real world (and whether Apple's actually fixed that antenna bridging issue that launched "Antennagate" -- which I'd speculate they may have with their new auto-antenna switching functionality). But the iPhone becoming a dual-mode device is one of the things that really made me really sit up and take notice yesterday.
Discussion about
Some thoughts on this week's Apple announcements
Great point. I'm not sure why Ive would have been at an incremental change of the iPhone. In fact, "incremental" only in the internals. Nothing has changed on the outside, form-factor wise, which is exactly what Ive works on.
Not sure why it's disappointing or surprising that Ive wasn't present.
Not sure why it's disappointing or surprising that Ive wasn't present.
I agree. Ive doesn't strike me as someone who wants to be in the spotlight a lot. That said, it's interesting to imagine how the politics have changed on the exec team without Jobs there. Ive was clearly Jobs' guy and you wonder if he holds a little less sway without Jobs on his side.
People constantly underestimate what Apple does because people confuse form and function. In looking for the form change (and barking when they don't get it), they neglect function. Apple changed the way we compute with the Mac and the way we listen to music with the ipod. When the rumors hit that Apple was coming out with a tablet, I recall all the tech gurus saying: "What will we do with a tablet that we can't do with a laptop?" Since finally getting an iPad, my PC and laptop are gathering dust.
Apple continues to change the way we interact with information, technology and each other. How many "design" changes have occurred with the PC? Soup it up more and more, but that didn't really change the way we dealt with information. It just increased the speed and quantity.
Look more carefully at the function and software changes coming with 4S and the new IOS. A lot more than meets the eye.
Apple continues to change the way we interact with information, technology and each other. How many "design" changes have occurred with the PC? Soup it up more and more, but that didn't really change the way we dealt with information. It just increased the speed and quantity.
Look more carefully at the function and software changes coming with 4S and the new IOS. A lot more than meets the eye.
Wow. I didn't realize what was being announced while I was typing this note. We have lost one of the geniuses of my generation. A visionary who transformed how we interact with information and each other. Someone tweeted the following link, that I was watching right after I typed the above and just before clicking on the news.... www.youtube.com/watch?v=D1R-jKKp3NA&sn...
Well, on the outside: sure. Significant on the inside though, with a new camera like that of the new SE Xperia Ray, and the A5 processor.
Agreed- when iOS 5 is out my iPhone 4 will still be a very capable smartphone. Do people really want a phone that's a different shape, packed with features they won't use released every single year? Madness! Especially when many are on 18 month and 24 month contracts.
My personal preference- The screen size is fine and the phone fits very comfortably in the hand.
My personal preference- The screen size is fine and the phone fits very comfortably in the hand.
People think because Apple didn't change the exterior of the iPhone that it is the exact same phone. This is more of an upgrade between the iPhone 4 and 4S than the iPhone 3G and 3GS were. Everyone was speculating there was going to be an iPhone 5, guess what people the iPhone 4S is the iPhone 5, it is the 5th generation iPhone, just like the iPhone 4 was the 4th generation iPhone. Just because it isn't called the iPhone 5 doesn't mean it is any less of an iPhone.
Imagine this scenario in some other industry:
1) Ford Motor Company announce they will hold a launch press conference for a new car on October 4th.
2) Some link-baiting blogger somewhere posts that he is certain - citing unnamed sources - that Ford will be revealing a flying car
3) Every car web site reports this rumor
4) October 4th rolls around and Ford announce a plug-in hybrid
5) Everyone is disappointed because the plug-in hybrid had none of the "promised" VTOL capabilities.
Not likely now is it? That is because car tech posters aren't as wildly speculating as IT posters are. And are far more down-to-Earth in their predictions.
I for one will be replacing my 3GS with a 4S, because I like all the technical advances they made relative to the iPhone 4. I expect to further upgrade two years later when LTE and NFC* perhaps have actually been deployed beyond an early "alpha" stage.
But do tell me when the Galaxy S III is released so I can post to forums about how it lacks... I dunno, a fingerprint scanner? A presentation laser pointer? I am sure I can pick out some set of features (useful to a small subset of the customer base) that I can complain about...
*) You can of course get third-party NFC support for the iPhone today should you have the need.
1) Ford Motor Company announce they will hold a launch press conference for a new car on October 4th.
2) Some link-baiting blogger somewhere posts that he is certain - citing unnamed sources - that Ford will be revealing a flying car
3) Every car web site reports this rumor
4) October 4th rolls around and Ford announce a plug-in hybrid
5) Everyone is disappointed because the plug-in hybrid had none of the "promised" VTOL capabilities.
Not likely now is it? That is because car tech posters aren't as wildly speculating as IT posters are. And are far more down-to-Earth in their predictions.
I for one will be replacing my 3GS with a 4S, because I like all the technical advances they made relative to the iPhone 4. I expect to further upgrade two years later when LTE and NFC* perhaps have actually been deployed beyond an early "alpha" stage.
But do tell me when the Galaxy S III is released so I can post to forums about how it lacks... I dunno, a fingerprint scanner? A presentation laser pointer? I am sure I can pick out some set of features (useful to a small subset of the customer base) that I can complain about...
*) You can of course get third-party NFC support for the iPhone today should you have the need.
My point was the absurd rumor-mongering preceding the launch, where people seemed to try and best each other, taking every "not entirely impossible" as confirmation. Your "larger screen and new chassis" was a small subset of the rumors.
I agree with you that the most game changing aspect of the announcement was the ability to get a 3GS on contract for free. If they could have gotten this deal on all three carriers, and perhaps even some pay as you go plans like Android has, it would give the iPhone an incredible sales boost.
I honestly think Apple needs to rethink their strategy when it comes to their keynotes. Is it required that the CEO be the main presenter? Their best pitchman after Jobs is clearly Ive. He gets the emotional resonance of Apple products with consumers better than anyone. In the future, they should have Cook do a quick introduction and hand the heavy lifting to Ive instead.
Thanks for pointing out the importance of the GSM/CDMA functionality. It is hard to recognize how important this is and what a technical feat it must be to accomplish this in such a device. I guess the disappointment in not getting a redesigned iPhone 5 has obscured some of the true highlights of yesterday's event.
I honestly think Apple needs to rethink their strategy when it comes to their keynotes. Is it required that the CEO be the main presenter? Their best pitchman after Jobs is clearly Ive. He gets the emotional resonance of Apple products with consumers better than anyone. In the future, they should have Cook do a quick introduction and hand the heavy lifting to Ive instead.
Thanks for pointing out the importance of the GSM/CDMA functionality. It is hard to recognize how important this is and what a technical feat it must be to accomplish this in such a device. I guess the disappointment in not getting a redesigned iPhone 5 has obscured some of the true highlights of yesterday's event.
I'm excited about replacing my POS LG Optima S with a shiny new iPhone 4S on my Sprint plan. Unlimited data, baby!!
I admit to being one that was hoping for an iPhone 5, but after seeing the changes brought to the iPhone 4 device under a 4S name, I'm impressed enough to make the switch from my Palm Pre on Sprint (and keep my unlimited data, however long Sprint will keep it around).
The 3G to 3GS was enough of a bump before that this 4 to 4S bump was very significant, especially in the area of the A5 addition. The camera upgrade is good and so is the newest tech add of Siri. Driving and texting laws will benefit highly from Siri, at least I see that being a reality.
I think the hype and media machine, regardless who was driving it, caused a good number of watchers to speak many "meh's" when there was no iPhone 5 announced. Apple's ability to still produce a nice upgrade to an already solid phone seemed to be overshadowed by the naysayers and wishful thinkers. Once the phone is released, I think most will shut their mouths and embrace what Apple produced.
Tim seemed to be stiff, but hey, it was hist first time hosting a major product announcement. I'll give him props for making it work.
The 3G to 3GS was enough of a bump before that this 4 to 4S bump was very significant, especially in the area of the A5 addition. The camera upgrade is good and so is the newest tech add of Siri. Driving and texting laws will benefit highly from Siri, at least I see that being a reality.
I think the hype and media machine, regardless who was driving it, caused a good number of watchers to speak many "meh's" when there was no iPhone 5 announced. Apple's ability to still produce a nice upgrade to an already solid phone seemed to be overshadowed by the naysayers and wishful thinkers. Once the phone is released, I think most will shut their mouths and embrace what Apple produced.
Tim seemed to be stiff, but hey, it was hist first time hosting a major product announcement. I'll give him props for making it work.
I admit the Pre hasn't been horrible. I actually like the webOS functionality and their notification system is one of the best I've used. But the phone is showing it's age in slowness and app upgrade functionality, when compared to iOS and Android.
And like you, I also have a TouchPad now (32gb model for $149). And also have the same experience with it with the apps - both built in and third party. It's a much better experience than the phone is.
Good point on the world phone functionality; that should be super useful to people frequently between the US and the rest of the world. Carriers should like that too.
I wonder how much user control one would have on an unlocked handset in terms of switching services on a whim (probably very do-able technically, just that most providers would want to lock you into some type of a long-term contract).
I wonder how much user control one would have on an unlocked handset in terms of switching services on a whim (probably very do-able technically, just that most providers would want to lock you into some type of a long-term contract).
Ryan, I completely agree with you. I wrote some different points earlier about where the real disappointment came from and why it doesn't really matter. The media is very love-hate with Apple. They'll quickly pounce on anything they can and any perceived fault or letdown, but they'll also jock Apple's successes to no end.
www.andygapin.com/2011/10/05/why-ill-probably-get-..., if anyone is interested.
www.andygapin.com/2011/10/05/why-ill-probably-get-..., if anyone is interested.
Does anyone else think Apple will never change the screen size of the iPhone? They painted themselves in a corner by going on an on about the retinal limit and PPI of the 960 x 640 3.5" screen. If they bump the screen size they'll lose the "retina" in "retina display". I suppose they could bump the resolution to something closer to 720p, but then Apple would have four sizes for developers to manage (and it wouldn't scale as nicely as 480 x 320 to 960 x 640).
I have no idea what most people think about this, but I personally like the current screen size. A lot of those 4.3" ones are pretty hefty and I'd struggle to fit them in my pocket.
And I agree with the resolution bump, Apple won't make it as regular as some have suggested. That's why I was sure the iPad 2 would be the same res as the first one, because there was no way they would change it less than a year after the first, if apps really are what sells phones.
And I agree with the resolution bump, Apple won't make it as regular as some have suggested. That's why I was sure the iPad 2 would be the same res as the first one, because there was no way they would change it less than a year after the first, if apps really are what sells phones.
I think their track record says that they won't. If they do, it's going to be something small, like 3.7" or 3.8" 3:2, that'll fit it inside the current form factor: about 2.4" wide by 4.4" tall. That's the basic dimension of all iPods (classic) and iPhones to date. It's been a decade of this. They likely have a belief that those dimensions are the optimum size for one-handed use.
It would take a lot of user feedback (read as: 4.3" screen phones becoming the number one selling smartphone) to get them to change their mind.
It would take a lot of user feedback (read as: 4.3" screen phones becoming the number one selling smartphone) to get them to change their mind.
I wouldn't be hurt if they kept the size the same. Apps, photos.. anything that keeps a consistent screen size is more preferable. Your point about what developers would have to manage is important. Don't want to complicate things.
Not sure how many of those are using the all-in-one radio chip that the 4S has, which apparently should allow for more efficiency than previous chipsets, as well as not impacting the size/weight of the device.
I didn't think that older 'worldphones' offered on Sprint & Verizon were particularly fat.
I didn't think that older 'worldphones' offered on Sprint & Verizon were particularly fat.
I only count 8 (there are a few used phones). The unique difference with the iPhone 4S is that it is the same phone on being sold on carriers all over the world. Many of the Verizon "Global Ready" phones are Verizon specific, and you can't get them elsewhere, though, you never know as who knows what the phones are called on other carriers.
There's a chance, microscopically small, that you can buy and unlocked iPhone 4S and go pre-paid on Verizon, Sprint, AT&T, Japanese KDDI, China Telecom, and the rest of the worlds GSM carriers. All at your whim. Including the MVNOs (Cricket, etc). (T-Mobile, Cincy Bell, maybe one Canadian carrier will not be supported). There's a certain freedom there that's really attractive for some.
The "WCDMA" has nothing to do Verizon. "WCDMA" is initialism for the air interface generally used by GSM networks like AT&T. So all GSM/UMTS ("3G") phones will use WCDMA. Verizon CDMA phones use an air interface called CDMA2000.
There's a chance, microscopically small, that you can buy and unlocked iPhone 4S and go pre-paid on Verizon, Sprint, AT&T, Japanese KDDI, China Telecom, and the rest of the worlds GSM carriers. All at your whim. Including the MVNOs (Cricket, etc). (T-Mobile, Cincy Bell, maybe one Canadian carrier will not be supported). There's a certain freedom there that's really attractive for some.
The "WCDMA" has nothing to do Verizon. "WCDMA" is initialism for the air interface generally used by GSM networks like AT&T. So all GSM/UMTS ("3G") phones will use WCDMA. Verizon CDMA phones use an air interface called CDMA2000.
The rumors really hurt Apple this time, expectations were huge and all we got was an improved Camera and the iPad processor. This was a two hour long press conference that had enough new information to fill two minutes. Siri is very impressive but it seems puzzling to me that a software based system is only available on the 4S. Is it so processor intensive that it can’t run on an iPhone 4? (The Siri app ran on the iPhone 4, what changed?)
Apple is certainly in a good position (huge mindshare), and adding Sprint will allow them to achieve record sales without much effort. Maybe this is good enough for them, but it sure leaves the door open for companies like Samsung or Nokia to show the world something new. Apple is most certainly going to be beat in the form factor war this year, is their mindshare enough to keep them out in front of the pack?
My biggest concern is that Apple seems so concerned with patents and lawsuits that it has to be a distraction for the company. Instead of innovating and making new experiences they seem content to bring lawsuits against every possible competitor. This isn’t the Apple that brought touch to the forefront, or designed a unique digital marketplace – this seems more like a lazy Apple that is coasting on their success wave.
Apple will be more than fine the next year, selling more iPhones than they ever have, but they need to show something truly special for the iPhone 5 and/or iOS 6.
Apple is certainly in a good position (huge mindshare), and adding Sprint will allow them to achieve record sales without much effort. Maybe this is good enough for them, but it sure leaves the door open for companies like Samsung or Nokia to show the world something new. Apple is most certainly going to be beat in the form factor war this year, is their mindshare enough to keep them out in front of the pack?
My biggest concern is that Apple seems so concerned with patents and lawsuits that it has to be a distraction for the company. Instead of innovating and making new experiences they seem content to bring lawsuits against every possible competitor. This isn’t the Apple that brought touch to the forefront, or designed a unique digital marketplace – this seems more like a lazy Apple that is coasting on their success wave.
Apple will be more than fine the next year, selling more iPhones than they ever have, but they need to show something truly special for the iPhone 5 and/or iOS 6.
I know for myself the relitively small screen size is a HUGE issue and is actually the deciding factor for me when considering switching from my HTC Desire to the iPhone 4s. I would personally prefer a less impressive spec bump and get a bigger screen (improved durability would be nice too.) I'm just not willing to downgrade from my current screen size that is already (in my mind) too small...
I will now be waiting for either the Nexus Prime or the iPhone 5/next iPhone, if it comes out early next year and if the Nexus Prime does not meet my expectations.
I definitely agree that the free 3GS is a huge game changer, as it opens up the iOS world to a whole new customer base.
I will now be waiting for either the Nexus Prime or the iPhone 5/next iPhone, if it comes out early next year and if the Nexus Prime does not meet my expectations.
I definitely agree that the free 3GS is a huge game changer, as it opens up the iOS world to a whole new customer base.
I wish I was happy with the 3.5" screen size, I would switch to the 4s in a second. The iPhone 4s is more than I expected in everything except screen size. The fast and high quality camera may still convince me to switch later if it proves to really be "that good" compared to the competition, but as of right now I'm a pretty disappointed. This was almost the ultimate phone...
I agree with you - switching to a dual-core processor for a new phone (+ additional RAM) should keep the 4S competitive for a while.
But having spent some time with devices that have 4" screens, I do feel that there is a benefit/comfort in having a slightly bigger screen. Would be nice to have on the iOS platform.
Still, I will live with my iPhone 4 until the next iPhone upgrade is out, I think.
But having spent some time with devices that have 4" screens, I do feel that there is a benefit/comfort in having a slightly bigger screen. Would be nice to have on the iOS platform.
Still, I will live with my iPhone 4 until the next iPhone upgrade is out, I think.
I've had a 4" screen and a 4.5" screen on phones. I hated both of them. They were too big and were awkward in my jean pockets. If the 4S/5 had a larger screen, I'd not be able to upgrade because I prefer small and functional instead of large and functional with more effort.
I think too many people that follow rumor sites got really caught up in the rumors. They were fantasizing about a 4" iPhone 5 and their dreams were crushed when the 4s was announced and went on tirades on the message boards. These are a small percentage of the general consumers who will buy this phone, including me.
There is nothing wrong with the phone. If it doesn't meet peoples "needs" then there are plenty (overwhelming) of choices for Android phones a few choices for WP7 phones. I, for one, cannot stand my Android phone and welcome the iPhone to the Sprint family and hopefully soon, my pocket.
There is nothing wrong with the phone. If it doesn't meet peoples "needs" then there are plenty (overwhelming) of choices for Android phones a few choices for WP7 phones. I, for one, cannot stand my Android phone and welcome the iPhone to the Sprint family and hopefully soon, my pocket.
Redesigned Product
Some folks expected a completely redesigned iPhone and what they got was an iPhone with redesigned internals leaving some disappointed. I think that having one phone that will work globally is a really bid deal. If their battery life claims hold up, that is another significant deal since iPhone users tend to use their devices all day long. A 7X improvement in video speed is going to leave competitors scrambling.
Game Changers
Getting a free iPhone might fall in that category, but you can only get it from AT&T. Maybe next year, Verizon can offer up the iPhone 4 for free and then Sprint the year after that with the 4S. Globally, I do not know what the situation is, but I am guessing that it will take a couple of years before Apple can realize the impact of being able to offer a free phone.
I think that the real game changer is potentially Siri. Having the potential of AI on your phone can have a huge influence on how we use our phones and maybe more. The big if is how well it works. Us "old" guys remember how well handwriting recognition worked on the Newton when it came out. :)
Some folks expected a completely redesigned iPhone and what they got was an iPhone with redesigned internals leaving some disappointed. I think that having one phone that will work globally is a really bid deal. If their battery life claims hold up, that is another significant deal since iPhone users tend to use their devices all day long. A 7X improvement in video speed is going to leave competitors scrambling.
Game Changers
Getting a free iPhone might fall in that category, but you can only get it from AT&T. Maybe next year, Verizon can offer up the iPhone 4 for free and then Sprint the year after that with the 4S. Globally, I do not know what the situation is, but I am guessing that it will take a couple of years before Apple can realize the impact of being able to offer a free phone.
I think that the real game changer is potentially Siri. Having the potential of AI on your phone can have a huge influence on how we use our phones and maybe more. The big if is how well it works. Us "old" guys remember how well handwriting recognition worked on the Newton when it came out. :)
The GPU in the A5 is likely to be about 3x to 4x faster than the Adreno 220 in dual-core Snapdragons. The PowerVR SGX543MP2 in the A5 will be superseded by any smartphone SoC in 2011, including Nvidia's Tegra3/Ka El.
The only thing that will be faster is the SGX543MP4 in the Playstation Vita.
The only thing that will be faster is the SGX543MP4 in the Playstation Vita.
I think the only reason we ever saw Johnny Ive is because of Steve's failing health and because Apple needed to assure investors that Steve Jobs was not the only brain behind Apple's success.
